Hear Me Out: What Are The Chances?
With early 2013 already filling in with potentially awesome new records, I got to thinking about the year as a whole. I mean, if January to March (typically a musical dead zone) is so stacked with exciting releases, what could spring and fall (typically teeming with exciting releases) hold?
So, in an attempt to paint a picture of what 2013 could be, I've compiled a list of artists who have even the slightest chance of releasing material this year, and broken them down by probability of release.
Without further ado, I attempt to answer the question "What are the chances (insert artist's name here) puts out an album this year?"
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things:
99% QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE
There have already been cryptic messages, behind-the-scenes videos, and all but an absolute confirmation of a spring release. The only reason they're even listed here is because they've scrapped entire sessions before. However, with the grassroots promotional machine already in motion, you can pretty much take this one to the bank.
98% VOLBEAT
Having already made fans wait nearly three years for a new album, the typically prolific Danes had to give it a little more extra time thanks to the delayed popularity of 2010's Beyond hell/Above Heaven, which started spawning hits in the U.S. a year and a half after its release. Nonetheless, their fifth record is in the final stages of preparation. Just today, it was given a title (Outlaw Gentlemen & Shady Ladies) and promised spring release.
95% DILLINGER ESCAPE PLAN
Nothing is ever completely a given with Dillinger Escape Plan, but all signs point toward a spring release for their new album. Plus, the three year wait is in line with their previous two albums.
94% WOLFMOTHER
Despite long stretches of silence and frequent member changes, Wolfmother soldiers on. After frontman Andrew Stockdale basically replaced his entire band after their debut album, four years passed between it and sophomore effort Cosmic Egg. It was a fine album but, for most fans of Woman and Joker & The Thief, too much time had passed. Now, suddenly, another four years has gone by with another slew of lineup changes. Aside from Stockdale, bassist Ian Peres is the only player who was on Cosmic Egg. Regardless, the third album is tentatively titled Gatherings, and is rumoured for a March release. It'll be interesting to see if anyone still cares by then, and how many band members actually make it to release date.
91% THE BLACK KEYS
There's absolutely nothing confirmed yet, but Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney is arguably rock's most prolific high-profile band. They released seven albums in their first decade as a band and, as they move into their second, they say they're itching to make another record. They typically don't need much studio time to bang out a record, and I fully expect them to make time this year to do just that.
90% ARCADE FIRE
It's still reportedly a ways from completion, but band and label have both promised a late 2013 release for Arcade Fire's fourth album. They've already been recording on and off, and with no touring obligations in the foreseeable future there's no reason to doubt their ability to make good on that promise.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not:
81% AGAINST ME!
It's highly likely that 2013 will see the release of Transgender Dysphoria Blues, Against Me!'s first album since Laura Jane Grace's medically assisted transition into womanhood. A supposed concept album about a transgender prostitute, it will undoubtedly be AM's most intriguing and polarizing release to date. It's been a slow process, though; recording sessions have been happening on and off for nearly a year, and there's still no sign that the album is ready. They're touring in Australia until the end of January, so don't expect any updates on this one until nearly spring.
76% AVENGED SEVENFOLD
The sixth A7X record has been in preliminary stages for a few months now, and it's said they're heading into the studio this month to begin recording with a planned release later this year. Anything can happen, but I expect we'll see an album on the shelf by fall; the band is scheduled to play Rock In Rio late-September, so don't be surprised if they're promoting a new album by then.
72% THE HOLD STEADY
It's been a long three years since the release of the underwhelming Heaven Is Whenever, and Craig Finn & Co. have reportedly been writing for their sixth album for a year now. It's only a matter of time before it's finished, and I'm optimistic that it will happen sooner rather than later.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way:
58% ARCTIC MONKEYS
There have been conflicting reports circling around the monkeys ever since they released Suck It And See two years back. It had been said at the time that a hiatus was coming, and not to expect new material for quite some time. However, 2012 saw the release of Record Store Day single (and my pick for song of the year) R U Mine? and a cover of The Beatles' Come Together released during the London Olympics. Then, word began to circulate that they were indeed recording their fifth album. They've got some festival dates lined up for summer; these shows will either be a road test for new material or a chance for fans to hear songs from a newly released album live.
51% RANCID
Rancid's eighth album was supposed to be recorded in the fall of 2011 and released last year; however, for whatever reason, that simply didn't happen. Now, Tim Armstrong says they'll go into the studio in February. We'll see if it really happens this time, but in the meantime fans looking to check out a song or 75 can get their fill at Tim Armstrong's website, where he's been faithfully posting a song every single day since November 1st.
50% MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE
To hell with the haters, I've been intrigued by MCR's last couple of albums. Veering away from their emo roots and turning into a diverse and exciting band capable of crafting well-written pop songs and roaring rockers alike, they're finally getting around to following up 2010's under-appreciated Danger Days. Wondering what direction the band is heading in is half the fun, and I'll be very intrigued to see what they can do on album five.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath:
41% JOHN BUTLER TRIO
Since his slight breakthrough into the U.S. with 2010's April Uprising, John Butler has been relatively quiet from a creative standpoint, opting to release stopgap live albums and DVDs rather than get back to work on new music. It's been quiet of late, which could mean he's hunkered down in an Australian studio working on album number six. Or, it could mean he's taking a break and enjoying his bigger royalty cheques.
38% PEARL JAM
All predictions seem to point to a 2013 release for the Seattle giants' tenth studio album, but things have been moving really slowly since they started working on it; just recently, Eddie Vedder confirmed it was happening, but that it was only about halfway done. If they can stay focused and keep off the road this year, the release can definitely happen. But, they're not rushing for anyone or anything, so don't be surprised if this one doesn't drop until next year.
29% MASTODON
It's been rather quiet in the Mastodon camp recently, which could mean they're gearing up to record their sixth album. However, with various band members involved in various side projects, I'm guessing it will be a while yet before we get a follow-up to 2011's excellent The Hunter.
23% BRAND NEW
It's already been nearly four years since Daisy, an album that was fine but felt like a step back from the remarkable The Devil And God Are Raging Inside Me. Word has it that new songs have been worked on in recent months, but Brand New are admitted procrastinators. To expect their fifth album to come along quickly is, in my opinion, expecting too much.
19% FUCKED UP
For a band so relentlessly prolific and creatively driven as they are, Fucked Up do take their time with their albums (the gap between their last two albums was three years). So, while the likelihood of hearing new songs from them this year is very high, don't expect a new Fucked Up album only two years after the staggering behemoth that was David Comes To Life.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens:
6% TOOL
Always demanding patience of their fans, Tool have managed to release just four albums, an EP and a compilation album in their twenty-plus years as a band. Tool fansmay must be patient, but they're rabid in their anticipation. The wait for album five has been the most excruciating in two decades of excruciating waits; when May 2 comes, it will mark the seventh anniversary of the last new song they released. So, when people tell you Tool's new album is coming out in 2013, belief will most likely lead to disappointment. Best to forget about this band entirely until you're actually listening to the new album. Which, if I must predict a release date, will be released in October. Of 2015.
4% METALLICA
Sure, the tenth Metallica album could come out this year. Sure, the Mayans could have been off by a year. Lars has already said that the follow-up to 2008's Death Magnetic wouldn't be released until 2014 at the earliest; the only reason to hope for it any earlier is that they're now 100% in control of their future after leaving Warner Brothers and starting their own label. With all their newfound freedom, who's to say they won't celebrate with a briskly recorded album for the biggest surprise release of 2013? You realize how silly that last sentence was, right?
3% MODEST MOUSE
In the six years since their last full-length album, Modest Mouse have been very quiet, rarely touring and rarely reminding anyone that they exist. The next album is being worked on, but slowly. How slowly? Well, Isaac Brock named his record label Glacial Pace.
2% RADIOHEAD
With Thom out working Atoms For Peace, it doesn't seem likely in the least that we'll get anything from Radiohead in the near future. But, this is the band that likes to give its fans ten days notice of new albums, so they're on this list under the subcategory "Anything Can Happen".
1% NINE INCH NAILS
We know that Trent Reznor is gearing up to release How To Destroy Angels' debut. We also know that there's an Interscope-released Nine Inch Nails greatest hits collection being targeted for 2014, for which Reznor promises two new Nine Inch Nails songs. But, we also know Reznor likes to fuck with his fans and absolutely loved fucking with Interscope. What better way to do that than to bring out a brand new Nine Inch Nails record? While it's an extremely unlikely scenario, see Radiohead.
So, in an attempt to paint a picture of what 2013 could be, I've compiled a list of artists who have even the slightest chance of releasing material this year, and broken them down by probability of release.
Without further ado, I attempt to answer the question "What are the chances (insert artist's name here) puts out an album this year?"
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things:
99% QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE
There have already been cryptic messages, behind-the-scenes videos, and all but an absolute confirmation of a spring release. The only reason they're even listed here is because they've scrapped entire sessions before. However, with the grassroots promotional machine already in motion, you can pretty much take this one to the bank.
98% VOLBEAT
Having already made fans wait nearly three years for a new album, the typically prolific Danes had to give it a little more extra time thanks to the delayed popularity of 2010's Beyond hell/Above Heaven, which started spawning hits in the U.S. a year and a half after its release. Nonetheless, their fifth record is in the final stages of preparation. Just today, it was given a title (Outlaw Gentlemen & Shady Ladies) and promised spring release.
95% DILLINGER ESCAPE PLAN
Nothing is ever completely a given with Dillinger Escape Plan, but all signs point toward a spring release for their new album. Plus, the three year wait is in line with their previous two albums.
94% WOLFMOTHER
Despite long stretches of silence and frequent member changes, Wolfmother soldiers on. After frontman Andrew Stockdale basically replaced his entire band after their debut album, four years passed between it and sophomore effort Cosmic Egg. It was a fine album but, for most fans of Woman and Joker & The Thief, too much time had passed. Now, suddenly, another four years has gone by with another slew of lineup changes. Aside from Stockdale, bassist Ian Peres is the only player who was on Cosmic Egg. Regardless, the third album is tentatively titled Gatherings, and is rumoured for a March release. It'll be interesting to see if anyone still cares by then, and how many band members actually make it to release date.
91% THE BLACK KEYS
There's absolutely nothing confirmed yet, but Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney is arguably rock's most prolific high-profile band. They released seven albums in their first decade as a band and, as they move into their second, they say they're itching to make another record. They typically don't need much studio time to bang out a record, and I fully expect them to make time this year to do just that.
90% ARCADE FIRE
It's still reportedly a ways from completion, but band and label have both promised a late 2013 release for Arcade Fire's fourth album. They've already been recording on and off, and with no touring obligations in the foreseeable future there's no reason to doubt their ability to make good on that promise.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not:
81% AGAINST ME!
It's highly likely that 2013 will see the release of Transgender Dysphoria Blues, Against Me!'s first album since Laura Jane Grace's medically assisted transition into womanhood. A supposed concept album about a transgender prostitute, it will undoubtedly be AM's most intriguing and polarizing release to date. It's been a slow process, though; recording sessions have been happening on and off for nearly a year, and there's still no sign that the album is ready. They're touring in Australia until the end of January, so don't expect any updates on this one until nearly spring.
76% AVENGED SEVENFOLD
The sixth A7X record has been in preliminary stages for a few months now, and it's said they're heading into the studio this month to begin recording with a planned release later this year. Anything can happen, but I expect we'll see an album on the shelf by fall; the band is scheduled to play Rock In Rio late-September, so don't be surprised if they're promoting a new album by then.
72% THE HOLD STEADY
It's been a long three years since the release of the underwhelming Heaven Is Whenever, and Craig Finn & Co. have reportedly been writing for their sixth album for a year now. It's only a matter of time before it's finished, and I'm optimistic that it will happen sooner rather than later.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way:
58% ARCTIC MONKEYS
There have been conflicting reports circling around the monkeys ever since they released Suck It And See two years back. It had been said at the time that a hiatus was coming, and not to expect new material for quite some time. However, 2012 saw the release of Record Store Day single (and my pick for song of the year) R U Mine? and a cover of The Beatles' Come Together released during the London Olympics. Then, word began to circulate that they were indeed recording their fifth album. They've got some festival dates lined up for summer; these shows will either be a road test for new material or a chance for fans to hear songs from a newly released album live.
51% RANCID
Rancid's eighth album was supposed to be recorded in the fall of 2011 and released last year; however, for whatever reason, that simply didn't happen. Now, Tim Armstrong says they'll go into the studio in February. We'll see if it really happens this time, but in the meantime fans looking to check out a song or 75 can get their fill at Tim Armstrong's website, where he's been faithfully posting a song every single day since November 1st.
50% MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE
To hell with the haters, I've been intrigued by MCR's last couple of albums. Veering away from their emo roots and turning into a diverse and exciting band capable of crafting well-written pop songs and roaring rockers alike, they're finally getting around to following up 2010's under-appreciated Danger Days. Wondering what direction the band is heading in is half the fun, and I'll be very intrigued to see what they can do on album five.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath:
41% JOHN BUTLER TRIO
Since his slight breakthrough into the U.S. with 2010's April Uprising, John Butler has been relatively quiet from a creative standpoint, opting to release stopgap live albums and DVDs rather than get back to work on new music. It's been quiet of late, which could mean he's hunkered down in an Australian studio working on album number six. Or, it could mean he's taking a break and enjoying his bigger royalty cheques.
38% PEARL JAM
All predictions seem to point to a 2013 release for the Seattle giants' tenth studio album, but things have been moving really slowly since they started working on it; just recently, Eddie Vedder confirmed it was happening, but that it was only about halfway done. If they can stay focused and keep off the road this year, the release can definitely happen. But, they're not rushing for anyone or anything, so don't be surprised if this one doesn't drop until next year.
29% MASTODON
It's been rather quiet in the Mastodon camp recently, which could mean they're gearing up to record their sixth album. However, with various band members involved in various side projects, I'm guessing it will be a while yet before we get a follow-up to 2011's excellent The Hunter.
23% BRAND NEW
It's already been nearly four years since Daisy, an album that was fine but felt like a step back from the remarkable The Devil And God Are Raging Inside Me. Word has it that new songs have been worked on in recent months, but Brand New are admitted procrastinators. To expect their fifth album to come along quickly is, in my opinion, expecting too much.
19% FUCKED UP
For a band so relentlessly prolific and creatively driven as they are, Fucked Up do take their time with their albums (the gap between their last two albums was three years). So, while the likelihood of hearing new songs from them this year is very high, don't expect a new Fucked Up album only two years after the staggering behemoth that was David Comes To Life.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens:
6% TOOL
Always demanding patience of their fans, Tool have managed to release just four albums, an EP and a compilation album in their twenty-plus years as a band. Tool fans
4% METALLICA
Sure, the tenth Metallica album could come out this year. Sure, the Mayans could have been off by a year. Lars has already said that the follow-up to 2008's Death Magnetic wouldn't be released until 2014 at the earliest; the only reason to hope for it any earlier is that they're now 100% in control of their future after leaving Warner Brothers and starting their own label. With all their newfound freedom, who's to say they won't celebrate with a briskly recorded album for the biggest surprise release of 2013? You realize how silly that last sentence was, right?
3% MODEST MOUSE
In the six years since their last full-length album, Modest Mouse have been very quiet, rarely touring and rarely reminding anyone that they exist. The next album is being worked on, but slowly. How slowly? Well, Isaac Brock named his record label Glacial Pace.
2% RADIOHEAD
With Thom out working Atoms For Peace, it doesn't seem likely in the least that we'll get anything from Radiohead in the near future. But, this is the band that likes to give its fans ten days notice of new albums, so they're on this list under the subcategory "Anything Can Happen".
1% NINE INCH NAILS
We know that Trent Reznor is gearing up to release How To Destroy Angels' debut. We also know that there's an Interscope-released Nine Inch Nails greatest hits collection being targeted for 2014, for which Reznor promises two new Nine Inch Nails songs. But, we also know Reznor likes to fuck with his fans and absolutely loved fucking with Interscope. What better way to do that than to bring out a brand new Nine Inch Nails record? While it's an extremely unlikely scenario, see Radiohead.
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