Hear Me Out: What Are the Chances? (2015 Update)
Back in January, I continued my ongoing tradition of choosing 25 artists and predicting the likelihood of new albums by said artists during the calendar year. Typically, I'll recap my progress at the midway point, but this year I considered not bothering with the update at all. Well, then I got bored and had a look at the post from January (which you can read in full here if a recap isn't your bag), and here we are.
Obviously, I can't grade myself on albums I predicted would not be released this year, except in the case of the ones that did see light of day despite a prediction that they wouldn't (of which Deftones are the only one so far that's threatening to do so, and we'll talk about them further down the page). So, let's revisit my predictions using the same categories I used in January. Ready?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE WERE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
Out of the five bands in this category, I'm currently at 50%. How can that be? Well, aside from Local H (originally given a 98% chance) and Muse (92%), Incubus (99%) has only fulfilled the first half of their proposed double EP for 2015. It's been eerily quiet since the release of (and lukewarm reception to) Trust Fall [Side A], and one gets the feeling that Side B's status may become more and more uncertain the closer we get to December 31st.
As for the two bands remaining, neither Wintersleep (95%) nor Red Hot Chili Peppers (86%) have given me much reason to hope since my original predictions. The Chili Peppers aren't so surprising, although the way they were talking about their progress earlier lead me to believe that they were making great progress. Wintersleep, on the other hand, are leaving me scratching my head. I fully believed this thing was really close (hell, they said it was really close), and yet there's no news aside from a handful of east coast tour dates in September. You know, the same situation that had me predicting the arrival of a new record in January. Of 2014.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
This category is shaping up really nicely; Silversun Pickups (74%), Slayer (71%), Clutch (67%) and The Sword (62%) are all releasing their records within the next two months, while Band of Horses (78%) is the only holdout. The stream of information that started flowing last year has dried up, so either those recording sessions fell through or we'll be getting a release date really soon.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
Of the three bands I gave higher than 50% chance to, Coheed and Cambria (57%) is the only one so far to nail down a release date. I'm not holding out much hope for new ones by The Tragically Hip (54%) or Radiohead (51%), but there's still ample time for them to prove mewrong right. As for the two just below the halfway mark of probability, there have been no indications of progress for either Metallica (46%) or Queens of the Stone Age (42%).
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
Baroness (36%) is recording with noted in-the-red producer Dave Fridmann, but that project is trending for a 2016 release, while Green Day (27%) and Tool (24%) aren't giving much reason for fans to expect new ones this year. Brand New (35%) seemed destined to buck the odds when they released the out-of-the-blue single Mene in April; there haven't been any updates since, though, so it looks like we're back on track on that front. Meanwhile, there's still a chance that Deftones (21%) could push back their next one until next year; it looked like a September 25th release was imminent, but things have gone suspiciously quiet since with no confirmation of that (or any) firm date. For what it's worth, I'm stoked as hell for Koi No Yokan's follow-up, so I'm okay with being wrong on this one.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
Perhaps the only thing shocking for me in this category is the fact that none of the five shocked me by getting an album out. There's still time for Nine Inch Nails (18%), Pearl Jam (15%), Soundgarden (11%), Biffy Clyro (7%) and Arctic Monkeys (4%), but the view from August looks pretty cut and dried for everybody but Nine Inch Nails. Trent Reznor has pulled sneaky stunts before, so I won't count out a new NIN album until January 1st.
So, at the All-Star break, I'm 6.5/13 on albums I thought would come out in 2015 and 12/12 on the ones I thought would not. Who will get it together in time? Who will keep their fans waiting? What dastardly deeds are Trent Reznor up to? Only time (by which I mean the rest of this calendar year) will tell.
Obviously, I can't grade myself on albums I predicted would not be released this year, except in the case of the ones that did see light of day despite a prediction that they wouldn't (of which Deftones are the only one so far that's threatening to do so, and we'll talk about them further down the page). So, let's revisit my predictions using the same categories I used in January. Ready?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE WERE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
Out of the five bands in this category, I'm currently at 50%. How can that be? Well, aside from Local H (originally given a 98% chance) and Muse (92%), Incubus (99%) has only fulfilled the first half of their proposed double EP for 2015. It's been eerily quiet since the release of (and lukewarm reception to) Trust Fall [Side A], and one gets the feeling that Side B's status may become more and more uncertain the closer we get to December 31st.
As for the two bands remaining, neither Wintersleep (95%) nor Red Hot Chili Peppers (86%) have given me much reason to hope since my original predictions. The Chili Peppers aren't so surprising, although the way they were talking about their progress earlier lead me to believe that they were making great progress. Wintersleep, on the other hand, are leaving me scratching my head. I fully believed this thing was really close (hell, they said it was really close), and yet there's no news aside from a handful of east coast tour dates in September. You know, the same situation that had me predicting the arrival of a new record in January. Of 2014.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
This category is shaping up really nicely; Silversun Pickups (74%), Slayer (71%), Clutch (67%) and The Sword (62%) are all releasing their records within the next two months, while Band of Horses (78%) is the only holdout. The stream of information that started flowing last year has dried up, so either those recording sessions fell through or we'll be getting a release date really soon.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
Of the three bands I gave higher than 50% chance to, Coheed and Cambria (57%) is the only one so far to nail down a release date. I'm not holding out much hope for new ones by The Tragically Hip (54%) or Radiohead (51%), but there's still ample time for them to prove me
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
Baroness (36%) is recording with noted in-the-red producer Dave Fridmann, but that project is trending for a 2016 release, while Green Day (27%) and Tool (24%) aren't giving much reason for fans to expect new ones this year. Brand New (35%) seemed destined to buck the odds when they released the out-of-the-blue single Mene in April; there haven't been any updates since, though, so it looks like we're back on track on that front. Meanwhile, there's still a chance that Deftones (21%) could push back their next one until next year; it looked like a September 25th release was imminent, but things have gone suspiciously quiet since with no confirmation of that (or any) firm date. For what it's worth, I'm stoked as hell for Koi No Yokan's follow-up, so I'm okay with being wrong on this one.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
Perhaps the only thing shocking for me in this category is the fact that none of the five shocked me by getting an album out. There's still time for Nine Inch Nails (18%), Pearl Jam (15%), Soundgarden (11%), Biffy Clyro (7%) and Arctic Monkeys (4%), but the view from August looks pretty cut and dried for everybody but Nine Inch Nails. Trent Reznor has pulled sneaky stunts before, so I won't count out a new NIN album until January 1st.
So, at the All-Star break, I'm 6.5/13 on albums I thought would come out in 2015 and 12/12 on the ones I thought would not. Who will get it together in time? Who will keep their fans waiting? What dastardly deeds are Trent Reznor up to? Only time (by which I mean the rest of this calendar year) will tell.
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