Hear Me Out: What Are The Chances? 2016 Edition

It's that time again, where we rest up after another long year but take a beat to peek into the crystal ball and wonder about the things to come. So, for the fourth year, let's throw down swami style!

In terms of success rate, last year wasn't so great; of the 13 artists I gave greater than a 50% chance of releasing albums, only 7½ did (Incubus only made good on the first half of their promised double EP). The under 50% category was much better, correctly predicting 11 of 12 would not release records (only Baroness managed to do so, and at pretty much the last possible moment by releasing Purple on December 18).

That said, here's hoping for better luck on the upper categories this year, as these are all artists I'd really like an album from in 2016. Let's go!

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE ARE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS

96% DEFTONES

The follow-up to Koi No Yokan was originally scheduled for release this past September, but some last-minute tinkering turned into a chance to give it a proper shot outside of a crowded fall release schedule. It's all but set in stone for a first quarter release, and we should be getting more details any day now.

91% WEEZER

Having already released a couple of songs recently, it sure seems Weezer is working up to a full-length release. That said, there isn't anything firmly in place just yet. The Offspring released a one-off single in early 2015 and it was assumed that an LP was coming, but it hasn't. Weezer might be taking the same approach, but that should be the only reason not to assume a new record is coming in 2016.

88% BAND OF HORSES

After taking some time away from recording sessions for their fifth album, Band of Horses now seem to be on pace for an early 2016 release. Barring further unseen delays, it's highly likely we'll be hearing more about a new record very soon.

85% ANTEMASQUE

Earlier this year it was revealed that Antemasque (the third and newest amazing band spearheaded by Omar Rodriguez-Lopez and Cedric Bixler-Zivala) was indeed recording their second album, and with Travis Barker on the drums no less. In November, they debuted eight new songs in concert, and have tentatively titled their forthcoming record Saddle On the Atom Bomb. All the signs are there.

82% RADIOHEAD

All reports indicate Radiohead's ninth album is pretty much in the can. Plus, they released a freebie (a beautiful rejected Bond theme song) on Christmas Day. Suffice to say, the hype machine is powering up; let's just hope this record isn't as disappointing as The King of Limbs.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT

79% NINE INCH NAILS

Trent Reznor's a sneaky bastard by times, but I trust him. A couple weeks back, he said new Nine Inch Nails was coming in 2016. I'll take his word for it. That long-gestating reissue of The Fragile, on the other hand...

73% BIFFY CLYRO

I don't really have a reason to doubt this one, considering they had the songs written for this one by this time last year. They've already booked summer festivals and presumably completed most of the necessary recording, so I fully expect to Mon the Biff by, say, June.

66% DILLINGER ESCAPE PLAN

DEP were scheduled to begin work on their sixth record in November. No reason to believe they can't bang one out by the end of 2016; besides, they've managed to release an album every three years since 2004's Miss Machine, the last of which was One of Us Is the Killer in 2013. The math checks out.

64% AGAINST ME!

Sessions for their seventh album began in the fall, and Laura Jane Grace has expressed hopes of having a record out by summer. Delays can happen, though, and did surrounding previous LP Transgender Dysphoria Blues; recording for that one began almost two years before its eventual release, although it was a more tumultuous time for the band. This time, things seem to be flowing more smoothly, so I expect this one to happen in 2016.

62% LIARS

Though they've been fairly quiet as of late, it could be that Liars are working on the follow-up to 2014's Mess. With so little information, it's hard to tell; having said that, chalk this one up to a good old fashioned gut feeling.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY

55% BRAND NEW

Goddamn, we've spent a long time waiting for the follow-up to Daisy, haven't we? In April, when a brand new Brand New track fell out of the sky, it felt like the floodgates were about to open, and yet here we are, still waiting. As of my writing this, it's been just about 75 months and, with the vibes I'm getting, it feels like something has to happen soon.

53% KINGS OF LEON

I had put the chances of this one a bit lower until reading an article earlier today in which Kings of Leon resolved to have a new record out in 2016, citing pre-production has already started. That's fine, I'll believe them this time, but just barely.

48% METALLICA

From 4% in 2013 and 2014 all the way to 46% last year, Metallica gets just a little closer to the possibility that they might actually release a new record this year. We know they're in the studio doing something, but whatever it is I'm wholly convinced they'll take their sweet time with it.

44% FUCKED UP

I might regret this placement considering how prolific Fucked Up are, but I'm just not seeing evidence to support a full-length in 2016. They took three years between each of the previous three while maintaining a torrid pace of one-offs and their ongoing Zodiac series, so I can't really see them getting another LP in the can quite this soon.

42% TOOL

Here we go again. Another year come and gone, another year further away from 10,000 Days. Come May 2 it will be ten years since the release of that record and, barring a surprise release the likes of which the world has never seen, we're going a full decade without a new Tool record. Plus, it seems the more we bitch and moan about it, the more grumpy Maynard James Keenan seems to become. Would everybody just shut the fuck up so this thing will come out?

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH

37% VAMPIRE WEEKEND

It may feel like time for the fourth Vampire Weekend record (nearing three years removed from Modern Vampires of the City), but things have been a little too quiet. Considering reports on that record began circulating well over a year ahead of its release, I don't like the chances of seeing a new platter from the indie darlings before 2017.

36% MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA

Sure, I'd love a new MO record in the next year, but the facts are the facts: Cope was released less than two years ago, and its corresponding acoustic version released just over a year ago. There's no evidence linking them to the creation of their fifth LP just yet, so I won't expect to hear it for a while yet.

34% GREEN DAY

Aside from a surprise-released Christmas song, Green Day didn't get much accomplished in 2015 (you know, aside from getting inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame). There were rumblings of recording sessions, but the band is right to be taking their time; the failed deluge of LPs released in late 2012 combined with Billie Joe Armstrong's pre-rehab antics left a sour taste in a lot of mouths, so I fully commend them for making sure they get their next move right. That said, another year out of the spotlight might create enough distance needed for Green Day to make a successful new beginning.

31% RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS

Fool me once. Last year, I thought chances on this one were good based on the excited quotes from band members surrounding demoing sessions. It's said that this one is close to completed, but by the time mixing, mastering and tinkering happens and a proper promotional cycle swings into gear, I've got a less enthusiastic feeling about it for 2016.

22% ROYAL BLOOD

Work is tentatively under way for the breakout rookies' sophomore record, although considering the legs the debut has had it might not be the best course of action to rush into it. There are a lot of eyes and ears on the duo this time around, and whatever they come up with in that studio is bound to be the most important music of their careers.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS

19% DEAD SARA

It would only make sense that Dead Sara wouldn't have a third record out so quickly, right? Well, they're here because there is, in fact, a chance; there have been a few pics posted with allusions to demoing material. That said, their focus at the moment is touring; maybe in the new year, they'll set to work on their first record for Elektra, but it doesn't seem all that likely we'll hear it soon.

17% ARCADE FIRE

By proxy, Arcade Fire is still promoting 2013's Reflektor, with a concert doc showing at the Toronto Film Festival this fall. There's no sign of movement on album number five just yet, although if they don't get an album out in 2016 it will signify a break in the "every three years" math I presented as a case for Dillinger Escape Plan's forthcoming record being released in the coming year. So, what I've learned is I'm a little bit contradictory.

14% ARCTIC MONKEYS

AM was a true breakthrough for Arctic Monkeys, spawning a number of hits and sticking around in rock's collective consciousness for well over a year (a feat not easy to accomplish in this day and age). The thing is, they sort of went on hiatus about a year ago, with nary a hint of recommencing day-to-day operations. Frontman Alex Turner has kept busy, though, with a new album by side-project The Last Shadow Puppets coming in March. It's possible they'll reconvene and set to work on a new record, but not so possible for it to happen in 2016.

12% PEARL JAM

While ideas are being thrown around for their eleventh album, Pearl Jam have prioritized touring in recent years, and have become slower and slower at creating albums. I don't see anything coming to fruition this year.

8% QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE

Having expressed a desire to not have such a long gap between ...Like Clockwork and the next QOTSA record (gap between it and the previous record was about six years), Joshua Homme can release the next QOTSA in 2018 and still make good on his word. Having promised to work on it after a new Eagles of Death Metal (which came out in October) and Desert Sessions, only the latter stands between us and new Queens. So, when's that new Desert Sessions coming out?