Hear Me Out: What Are the Chances? 2018 Edition
Well, 2017 was an interesting year, and one full of choices in terms of music. That's already yesterday's news, though, as 2018 is here and wasting no time in giving us reasons to be excited. We already have a handful of releases confirmed, including some I'm really looking forward to from the likes of Corrosion of Conformity, Brian Fallon, Superchunk, Screaming Females and Manic Street Preachers.
Of course, we both know you didn't start reading this article to hear about what we already know. "What Are the Chances?" is all about predicting the unknown, reading palms and gazing into crystal balls. Naturally, some releases are easier to predict than others (we have bands like A Perfect Circle virtually guaranteeing action in the form of advance singles, while for others it's been all but confirmed in interviews). Some are total shots in the dark, crapshoots that can go either way, while some are very unlikely to see light of day in the next year.
Before we get started, a quick rundown of last year, where I tried something a little more ambitious, listing a full 100 possibilities; as fun as that was to compile and edit as the year went on and release dates got confirmed, I couldn't think of that many to pencil in this year, so I've decided to go back to the old 25 format. Besides, quadrupling the number of artists resulted in pretty much the same prediction rate in 2017 as the two previous years, with 31 of the albums given 51-100% chance of coming out proving true and 43 of the 50 given 0-50% not coming out. That's a total success rate of 74%, the same percentage as 2015 and only 2 points higher than 2016.
One more thing about 2018's predictions that is different from previous years; whereas the rules hinged on full albums being released within the calendar year, this time out I'm accepting EPs as releases as well; that's because more and more bands have taken to releasing EPs (or a series of them) in lieu of a full-length record, and that just makes things a little muddier.
So, who's ready for some predictions?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE ARE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
98% A PERFECT CIRCLE
Last Album: eMOTIVe (2004)
The only reason for that 2% worth of doubt is the fact that the two singles released thus far are being put out as a 10" vinyl in March, but a full-length album has not yet been officially announced even though we've gotten assurances that we will get one in 2018. I'm just waiting for the full reveal with the rest of you.
UPDATE: Eat the Elephant was released April 20.
93% DEAD SARA
Last Album: Pleasure To Meet You (2015)
Once thought to be quickly following Pleasure To Meet You, Dead Sara's third album now seems to be slowly progressing. That said, the band has told fans to expect an EP fairly soon. Considering they've been sprinkling new songs into their set lists for about a year and a half now, it's high time for something new from the studio; I'm holding out hope for a full-length by year's end, but a handful of new tunes would surely tide me over just fine.
UPDATE: Temporary Things Taking Up Space was released June 8.
88% FATHER JOHN MISTY
Last Album: Pure Comedy (2017)
It may seem ludicrous to expect the fourth Father John Misty so soon after the release of Pure Comedy, but it appears as though we're getting new stuff this year; he'd reportedly already begun the mixing process in July (just three months after Pure Comedy's release), and in November he was still promising a 2018 release date. Well, considering Pure Comedy was my Album of the Year for 2017, here's hoping we get a contender for that award's first ever back-to-back winner.
UPDATE: God's Favorite Customer was released June 1.
84% VAMPIRE WEEKEND
Last Album: Modern Vampires of the City (2013)
Though it's progressing rather slowly, it does feel as though Vampire Weekend are on the home stretch for their long-awaited fourth album. It's been nearly five years now since the release of Modern Vampires of the City, and the upcoming LP will mark their first on a major label, so I can't fault them for taking their time. Still, with so much pressure on the band this time out (not to mention the departure of founding member Rostam Batmanglij), this is sure to be one of the most hotly anticipated and heavily scrutinized albums of the year.
82% ARCTIC MONKEYS
Last Album: AM (2013)
Having taken a break once the juggernaut hit machine that was AM ran its course, Arctic Monkeys reportedly started work on their sixth album in earnest this past fall after nearly a year of tentative work; details are scarce, but the few signs we have all point to getting our hands on a new one from Arctic Monkeys this year.
UPDATE: Tranquility Base Hotel & Casino was released May 11.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
77% CAR SEAT HEADREST
Last Album: Teens of Denial (2016)
A clarification: Twin Fantasy, the Car Seat Headrest album being released next month is not exactly a new album, rather a re-recording of one of Will Toledo's beloved but rough-sounding early albums; as easy as it would be to count that and take the point, the 77% chance I've given is on the prospect of new songs, and hopefully the proper follow-up to my 2016 Album of the Year.
75% I MOTHER EARTH
Last Album (Original Line-up): Scenery and Fish (1996)
It sounds insane, but the reunion between Edwin and I Mother Earth that most thought would never happen not only did, and not only has been going well, but has been going so well as to get the promise of new music in 2018. At this point, it's hard to tell whether we're getting a full album or a one-off single (such as the band has been wont to do since 2012, releasing three singles in three years), but the prospect of a new IME album with Edwin for the first time in 22 years has some salivating and others approaching with trepidation. Whatever the case, look for this potential new music to be one of Canadian rock's biggest storylines in 2018.
73% CLUTCH
Last Album: Psychic Warfare (2015)
Like a good, dependable truck, Clutch just keeps on delivering solid records over a quarter century into their careers; they plan to take a break from touring (and road testing some of their new songs) to put their twelfth record to tape later this month. Judging from the quality of recently performed new tracks 150 Pesos and Bad Decisions, it sure seems as though Clutch aren't planning on letting any of us down any time soon.
UPDATE: Book of Bad Decisions was released September 7.
68% BARONESS
Last Album: Purple (2015)
After releasing another great record that was marred by the loud production of Dave Fridmann, Baroness are gearing up for album number five (probably the orange album, continuing their run through the rainbow). They also have a new guitarist in Gina Gleason; she's got serious chops, so I'm very intrigued to hear what sort of dynamic she brings to Baroness' continued evolution.
63% COURTNEY BARNETT
Last Album: Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit (2015)
While working on the follow-up to her much-lauded debut album, Courtney Barnett decided to step back for a bit and relieve some of the pressure of expectation by releasing a collaborative album with Kurt Vile last year. Now, one thinks she'll get back to the task at hand, which is finishing up a follow-up to my 2015 Album of the Year. She recently told Zane Lowe in an interview that "it's getting close"; barring unforeseen delays, we should be listening to this one in 2018.
UPDATE: Tell Me How You Really Feel was released May 18.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
56% CANCER BATS
Last Album: Searching For Zero (2015)
Though they've previously said they're enjoying the feeling of not having deadlines or rushing their way through recording a new album, one does have to think that something is bound to happen in the near future. In fact, just a few days ago they tweeted out about how spending much of 2017 resting up has inspired them to get some new tunes on the go for 2018. We'll see if this new year's resolution plays out, but I'm optimistic about new Bats this year.
UPDATE: The Spark That Moves was released April 20.
55% THE DECEMBERISTS
Last Album: What a Terrible World, What a Beautiful World (2015)
To be sure, The Decemberists are keeping busy on plenty of things, although whether a new album is one of them remains to be seen. That said, they recently released a Hamilton-inspired track for a series of "drops" by Lin-Manuel Miranda. They had to have recorded that in a studio, right? Perhaps they did it in between takes for their own songs, for their own record? I'm hoping that's the case.
UPDATE: I'll Be Your Girl was released March 16.
47% BIFFY CLYRO
Last Album: Ellipsis (2016)
Though they've expressed a desire to move quickly into their eighth album, and frontman Simon Neil has mentioned that politics are playing a role in influencing some pretty angry stuff, it just doesn't feel like this is something that's just going to fall together in a timely fashion. I expect it'll be early 2019 for this one.
45% TITUS ANDRONICUS
Last Album: The Most Lamentable Tragedy (2015)
There's no evidence to support the new Titus Andronicus record is being worked on, although there are also no tour dates scheduled, which could mean there is something on the horizon. Can I make a side bet and call this one as the first one I'm wrong on this year?
UPDATE: A Productive Cough was released March 2.
41% PEARL JAM
Last Album: Lightning Bolt (2013)
The gap between Pearl Jam albums just continues to widen; after the 27-month space in between their self-titled 2006 record and Backspacer in 2009, the band had taken their longest break between records by making fans wait 49 months for Lightning Bolt. As of this writing, it's been 51 months since that record, and there are no real signs of life in terms of new material. Not that they owe us anything at this point, but it does seem as though they're content to coast off their Rock n' Roll Hall of Fame induction and sprinkle in some tour dates here and there so they have a new live album to sell you at Christmas time. Still, some of us fans are getting restless and curious to know whether or not our favourite band has anything of substance left to say.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
39% BLOC PARTY
Last Album: Hymns (2016)
With a coolly received album not quite two years old yet, and a solo album from Kele just released a few months back, it doesn't look like there's much motivation to get back to the Bloc Party grind. Perhaps it's best for them to take their time with whatever comes next, and let fans' hearts grow a little fonder in the band's absence.
36% MODEST MOUSE
Last Album: Strangers To Ourselves (2015)
When Strangers To Ourselves was released almost three years ago, it was released as the first part of a double album; moreover, Isaac Brock stated that the second half would come out "as quickly as it's legally allowed to be". Okay, fess up; who the fuck is suing Modest Mouse?
34% AGAINST ME!
Last Album: Shape Shift With Me (2016)
Don't get me wrong, it'd be great to have a quick follow-up to the fantastic Shape Shift With Me; it just takes longer with this band mostly on account of the heavy touring they do to support these records. That said, there are no further tour dates scheduled before a one-off in May, so there's always the chance that a record comes together in time for the year's end.
30% ANTHRAX
Last Album: For All Kings (2016)
Work is being done, and the tunes are already being talked up in interviews, but it feels like it's all in the starting phases right now. Considering the five-year gap between Worship Music and For All Kings, it's borderline foolish to expect new tunes from the metal heavyweights this year.
26% THE BLACK KEYS
Last Album: Turn Blue (2014)
Though there is wild speculation on the internet (is there any other kind of speculation on the internet?) that a new Black Keys album is being worked on in secret. The evidence, however, would suggest that Dan Auerbach is doing just fine on his current solo run and Patrick Carney is content taking a break from the record-tour grind. I don't believe anything is coming too quickly from this band at this point, which is insane considering how prolific they were in their first decade.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
20% FUCKED UP
Last Album: Glass Boys (2014)
Things seem eerily quiet from this once super-prolific band; though three year gaps between records became common, there were also countless singles and EPs to fill them in. As of this article's conception, there have only been three releases since Glass Boys came out. Trust me, for this band that's not much. Anything's possible, but it feels like things are slowing down for the revered Canadian ragers.
UPDATE: Dose Your Dreams was released October 5.
16% SMASHING PUMPKINS (Reunion)
Last Album (Original Line-Up): Machina (2000)
It seems totally unfathomable, but there is hope for a full-on Smashing Pumpkins reunion; there's even been talk of a new album with the group's most famous lineup. I'm optimistic about this, but I'm tempering my expectations in more ways than one. If they can not only get a full album together and have it be quality stuff, that would be amazing. Having it all happen in the next twelve months? I don't know, you guys.
UPDATE: Shiny and Oh So Bright Vol. 1 was released November 16.
12% SLIPKNOT
Last Album: .5: The Gray Chapter (2014)
Though talk of Slipknot's sixth album has been going for a while now, it looks like it's going to be a while before the members' schedules align. Last update points to recording sometime toward the end of the year, so unless somebody gets a sudden influx of free time, we're not getting new Slipknot this year.
10% SYSTEM OF A DOWN
Last Album: Mezmerize (2005)
It feels like one of those "so close, so far away" things; after reuniting for shows and reporting great strides toward a new album, a couple of interviews from band members last year kind of took the air out of our sails. In July, bassist Shavo Odadjian said "I'm waiting for a new album too. It's not happening, I don't know." Meanwhile, Serj Tankian said late in the year that "we still haven't come eye to eye on how things should be done". Talk about having your hopes dashed.
6% TOOL
Last Album: 10,000 Days (2006)
"Definitely" coming out in 2018, Danny Carey says. Okay, fine; let's just accept that as gospel and start dancing in the streets. Oh, wait, what's that? You say this is the same Danny Carey who told Rolling Stone, "Most likely, it'll be early 2014"? Cool. In 2013, when I did the first of these lists, I gave the new Tool record a 6% chance of coming out, and said "when people tell you Tool's new album is coming out in 2013, belief will most likely lead to disappointment". Five years of baiting them, taunting them, daring them to prove me wrong, the only thing that's changed is the calendar. Today, we're 4,263 days out from the release of the last Tool record; but, like I've said a bunch of times, who's counting?
So there we have it, my best guesses as to what to expect (and not expect) from 2018. Here's hoping that, no matter what I'm right or wrong about, it's a year full of awesome music.
Of course, we both know you didn't start reading this article to hear about what we already know. "What Are the Chances?" is all about predicting the unknown, reading palms and gazing into crystal balls. Naturally, some releases are easier to predict than others (we have bands like A Perfect Circle virtually guaranteeing action in the form of advance singles, while for others it's been all but confirmed in interviews). Some are total shots in the dark, crapshoots that can go either way, while some are very unlikely to see light of day in the next year.
Before we get started, a quick rundown of last year, where I tried something a little more ambitious, listing a full 100 possibilities; as fun as that was to compile and edit as the year went on and release dates got confirmed, I couldn't think of that many to pencil in this year, so I've decided to go back to the old 25 format. Besides, quadrupling the number of artists resulted in pretty much the same prediction rate in 2017 as the two previous years, with 31 of the albums given 51-100% chance of coming out proving true and 43 of the 50 given 0-50% not coming out. That's a total success rate of 74%, the same percentage as 2015 and only 2 points higher than 2016.
One more thing about 2018's predictions that is different from previous years; whereas the rules hinged on full albums being released within the calendar year, this time out I'm accepting EPs as releases as well; that's because more and more bands have taken to releasing EPs (or a series of them) in lieu of a full-length record, and that just makes things a little muddier.
So, who's ready for some predictions?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE ARE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
98% A PERFECT CIRCLE
Last Album: eMOTIVe (2004)
The only reason for that 2% worth of doubt is the fact that the two singles released thus far are being put out as a 10" vinyl in March, but a full-length album has not yet been officially announced even though we've gotten assurances that we will get one in 2018. I'm just waiting for the full reveal with the rest of you.
UPDATE: Eat the Elephant was released April 20.
93% DEAD SARA
Last Album: Pleasure To Meet You (2015)
Once thought to be quickly following Pleasure To Meet You, Dead Sara's third album now seems to be slowly progressing. That said, the band has told fans to expect an EP fairly soon. Considering they've been sprinkling new songs into their set lists for about a year and a half now, it's high time for something new from the studio; I'm holding out hope for a full-length by year's end, but a handful of new tunes would surely tide me over just fine.
UPDATE: Temporary Things Taking Up Space was released June 8.
88% FATHER JOHN MISTY
Last Album: Pure Comedy (2017)
It may seem ludicrous to expect the fourth Father John Misty so soon after the release of Pure Comedy, but it appears as though we're getting new stuff this year; he'd reportedly already begun the mixing process in July (just three months after Pure Comedy's release), and in November he was still promising a 2018 release date. Well, considering Pure Comedy was my Album of the Year for 2017, here's hoping we get a contender for that award's first ever back-to-back winner.
UPDATE: God's Favorite Customer was released June 1.
84% VAMPIRE WEEKEND
Last Album: Modern Vampires of the City (2013)
Though it's progressing rather slowly, it does feel as though Vampire Weekend are on the home stretch for their long-awaited fourth album. It's been nearly five years now since the release of Modern Vampires of the City, and the upcoming LP will mark their first on a major label, so I can't fault them for taking their time. Still, with so much pressure on the band this time out (not to mention the departure of founding member Rostam Batmanglij), this is sure to be one of the most hotly anticipated and heavily scrutinized albums of the year.
82% ARCTIC MONKEYS
Last Album: AM (2013)
Having taken a break once the juggernaut hit machine that was AM ran its course, Arctic Monkeys reportedly started work on their sixth album in earnest this past fall after nearly a year of tentative work; details are scarce, but the few signs we have all point to getting our hands on a new one from Arctic Monkeys this year.
UPDATE: Tranquility Base Hotel & Casino was released May 11.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
77% CAR SEAT HEADREST
Last Album: Teens of Denial (2016)
A clarification: Twin Fantasy, the Car Seat Headrest album being released next month is not exactly a new album, rather a re-recording of one of Will Toledo's beloved but rough-sounding early albums; as easy as it would be to count that and take the point, the 77% chance I've given is on the prospect of new songs, and hopefully the proper follow-up to my 2016 Album of the Year.
75% I MOTHER EARTH
Last Album (Original Line-up): Scenery and Fish (1996)
It sounds insane, but the reunion between Edwin and I Mother Earth that most thought would never happen not only did, and not only has been going well, but has been going so well as to get the promise of new music in 2018. At this point, it's hard to tell whether we're getting a full album or a one-off single (such as the band has been wont to do since 2012, releasing three singles in three years), but the prospect of a new IME album with Edwin for the first time in 22 years has some salivating and others approaching with trepidation. Whatever the case, look for this potential new music to be one of Canadian rock's biggest storylines in 2018.
73% CLUTCH
Last Album: Psychic Warfare (2015)
Like a good, dependable truck, Clutch just keeps on delivering solid records over a quarter century into their careers; they plan to take a break from touring (and road testing some of their new songs) to put their twelfth record to tape later this month. Judging from the quality of recently performed new tracks 150 Pesos and Bad Decisions, it sure seems as though Clutch aren't planning on letting any of us down any time soon.
UPDATE: Book of Bad Decisions was released September 7.
68% BARONESS
Last Album: Purple (2015)
After releasing another great record that was marred by the loud production of Dave Fridmann, Baroness are gearing up for album number five (probably the orange album, continuing their run through the rainbow). They also have a new guitarist in Gina Gleason; she's got serious chops, so I'm very intrigued to hear what sort of dynamic she brings to Baroness' continued evolution.
63% COURTNEY BARNETT
Last Album: Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit (2015)
While working on the follow-up to her much-lauded debut album, Courtney Barnett decided to step back for a bit and relieve some of the pressure of expectation by releasing a collaborative album with Kurt Vile last year. Now, one thinks she'll get back to the task at hand, which is finishing up a follow-up to my 2015 Album of the Year. She recently told Zane Lowe in an interview that "it's getting close"; barring unforeseen delays, we should be listening to this one in 2018.
UPDATE: Tell Me How You Really Feel was released May 18.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
56% CANCER BATS
Last Album: Searching For Zero (2015)
Though they've previously said they're enjoying the feeling of not having deadlines or rushing their way through recording a new album, one does have to think that something is bound to happen in the near future. In fact, just a few days ago they tweeted out about how spending much of 2017 resting up has inspired them to get some new tunes on the go for 2018. We'll see if this new year's resolution plays out, but I'm optimistic about new Bats this year.
UPDATE: The Spark That Moves was released April 20.
55% THE DECEMBERISTS
Last Album: What a Terrible World, What a Beautiful World (2015)
To be sure, The Decemberists are keeping busy on plenty of things, although whether a new album is one of them remains to be seen. That said, they recently released a Hamilton-inspired track for a series of "drops" by Lin-Manuel Miranda. They had to have recorded that in a studio, right? Perhaps they did it in between takes for their own songs, for their own record? I'm hoping that's the case.
UPDATE: I'll Be Your Girl was released March 16.
47% BIFFY CLYRO
Last Album: Ellipsis (2016)
Though they've expressed a desire to move quickly into their eighth album, and frontman Simon Neil has mentioned that politics are playing a role in influencing some pretty angry stuff, it just doesn't feel like this is something that's just going to fall together in a timely fashion. I expect it'll be early 2019 for this one.
45% TITUS ANDRONICUS
Last Album: The Most Lamentable Tragedy (2015)
There's no evidence to support the new Titus Andronicus record is being worked on, although there are also no tour dates scheduled, which could mean there is something on the horizon. Can I make a side bet and call this one as the first one I'm wrong on this year?
UPDATE: A Productive Cough was released March 2.
41% PEARL JAM
Last Album: Lightning Bolt (2013)
The gap between Pearl Jam albums just continues to widen; after the 27-month space in between their self-titled 2006 record and Backspacer in 2009, the band had taken their longest break between records by making fans wait 49 months for Lightning Bolt. As of this writing, it's been 51 months since that record, and there are no real signs of life in terms of new material. Not that they owe us anything at this point, but it does seem as though they're content to coast off their Rock n' Roll Hall of Fame induction and sprinkle in some tour dates here and there so they have a new live album to sell you at Christmas time. Still, some of us fans are getting restless and curious to know whether or not our favourite band has anything of substance left to say.
39% BLOC PARTY
Last Album: Hymns (2016)
With a coolly received album not quite two years old yet, and a solo album from Kele just released a few months back, it doesn't look like there's much motivation to get back to the Bloc Party grind. Perhaps it's best for them to take their time with whatever comes next, and let fans' hearts grow a little fonder in the band's absence.
36% MODEST MOUSE
Last Album: Strangers To Ourselves (2015)
When Strangers To Ourselves was released almost three years ago, it was released as the first part of a double album; moreover, Isaac Brock stated that the second half would come out "as quickly as it's legally allowed to be". Okay, fess up; who the fuck is suing Modest Mouse?
34% AGAINST ME!
Last Album: Shape Shift With Me (2016)
Don't get me wrong, it'd be great to have a quick follow-up to the fantastic Shape Shift With Me; it just takes longer with this band mostly on account of the heavy touring they do to support these records. That said, there are no further tour dates scheduled before a one-off in May, so there's always the chance that a record comes together in time for the year's end.
30% ANTHRAX
Last Album: For All Kings (2016)
Work is being done, and the tunes are already being talked up in interviews, but it feels like it's all in the starting phases right now. Considering the five-year gap between Worship Music and For All Kings, it's borderline foolish to expect new tunes from the metal heavyweights this year.
26% THE BLACK KEYS
Last Album: Turn Blue (2014)
Though there is wild speculation on the internet (is there any other kind of speculation on the internet?) that a new Black Keys album is being worked on in secret. The evidence, however, would suggest that Dan Auerbach is doing just fine on his current solo run and Patrick Carney is content taking a break from the record-tour grind. I don't believe anything is coming too quickly from this band at this point, which is insane considering how prolific they were in their first decade.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
20% FUCKED UP
Last Album: Glass Boys (2014)
Things seem eerily quiet from this once super-prolific band; though three year gaps between records became common, there were also countless singles and EPs to fill them in. As of this article's conception, there have only been three releases since Glass Boys came out. Trust me, for this band that's not much. Anything's possible, but it feels like things are slowing down for the revered Canadian ragers.
UPDATE: Dose Your Dreams was released October 5.
16% SMASHING PUMPKINS (Reunion)
Last Album (Original Line-Up): Machina (2000)
It seems totally unfathomable, but there is hope for a full-on Smashing Pumpkins reunion; there's even been talk of a new album with the group's most famous lineup. I'm optimistic about this, but I'm tempering my expectations in more ways than one. If they can not only get a full album together and have it be quality stuff, that would be amazing. Having it all happen in the next twelve months? I don't know, you guys.
UPDATE: Shiny and Oh So Bright Vol. 1 was released November 16.
12% SLIPKNOT
Last Album: .5: The Gray Chapter (2014)
Though talk of Slipknot's sixth album has been going for a while now, it looks like it's going to be a while before the members' schedules align. Last update points to recording sometime toward the end of the year, so unless somebody gets a sudden influx of free time, we're not getting new Slipknot this year.
10% SYSTEM OF A DOWN
Last Album: Mezmerize (2005)
It feels like one of those "so close, so far away" things; after reuniting for shows and reporting great strides toward a new album, a couple of interviews from band members last year kind of took the air out of our sails. In July, bassist Shavo Odadjian said "I'm waiting for a new album too. It's not happening, I don't know." Meanwhile, Serj Tankian said late in the year that "we still haven't come eye to eye on how things should be done". Talk about having your hopes dashed.
6% TOOL
Last Album: 10,000 Days (2006)
"Definitely" coming out in 2018, Danny Carey says. Okay, fine; let's just accept that as gospel and start dancing in the streets. Oh, wait, what's that? You say this is the same Danny Carey who told Rolling Stone, "Most likely, it'll be early 2014"? Cool. In 2013, when I did the first of these lists, I gave the new Tool record a 6% chance of coming out, and said "when people tell you Tool's new album is coming out in 2013, belief will most likely lead to disappointment". Five years of baiting them, taunting them, daring them to prove me wrong, the only thing that's changed is the calendar. Today, we're 4,263 days out from the release of the last Tool record; but, like I've said a bunch of times, who's counting?
So there we have it, my best guesses as to what to expect (and not expect) from 2018. Here's hoping that, no matter what I'm right or wrong about, it's a year full of awesome music.
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