Hear Me Out: What Are The Chances? 2015 Edition
Having made predictions in 2013 and 2014 already, this post has sort of turned into an annual tradition; and, with the year I had last year, why not keep it going? After correctly predicting that 14 out of 22 records would (or would not) come out in 2013, last year the bar was raised, as 9 of the 11 I thought would come out did while 12 of the 14 I thought wouldn't didn't, for a combined success rate of 82%.
For those who didn't bother clicking the links above and haven't seen how the game is played, it's simple: I'm choosing 25 artists who could potentially release new albums in 2015, and assigning an arbitrary percentage chance to each corresponding with what I feel the chances are that it happens. I'm also going to give a half-assed explanation as to why I chose what I did. It should also be noted that none of these artists have officially announced release dates as of the writing of this article, which is the morning of January 14th.
Ready? Let's go!
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE ARE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
99% INCUBUS
It hasn't been made officially official yet, but all signs point to Incubus releasing their eighth album in 2015... sort of. You see, the plan is to put out two EPs that equal an album, with the first half coming in spring and the second later in the year. So there's a chance I'll get this half right if the second part gets delayed. Whatever the case, it seems risky; after making fans wait five years for an album as tepid and lifeless as If Not Now, When?, then making them wait four more years before asking them to pay for the next one in installments, I'm just saying the first EP better have some Grade A hot shit on it.
98% LOCAL H
It wasn't a rousing success or anything, but Local H's last album (2012's Hallelujah! I'm a Bum) was a really good record that excelled in its depiction of the deteriorating American dream. For its follow-up, Scott Lucas (joined by a new drummer) has gone the Pledge Music route, promising a spring release and the title Hey, Killer. Looks like a lock to me.
95% WINTERSLEEP
I got hosed last year, when I called a new Wintersleep album a sure thing. This year, I absolutely, positively must be right. Er, right? Seriously, though, they seem to have already recorded it in Halifax, and I completely expect album number six in my hands by summer.
92% MUSE
When you're recording strings for your band's next album (as Muse was in December), your band's next album is pretty much done. Besides, it's been feeling like a 2015 release for Muse's seventh album since it was first being talked about way, way back in 2013. Whether or not it's the return to rock it's been advertised might be up in the air, but the album's release is far less in doubt; they hit the festival circuit at the end of May, and it's not unreasonable to think they'll have a new record to sell by then. Let's just hope it's a hell of a lot better than The 2nd Law, because (I can't even say it nicely) that album sucked.
86% RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
There's still plenty that can happen to delay the Chili Peppers' eleventh album, but a couple of band members have already stated their desire to have a record out this year. They've been recording without Rick Rubin at the helm for the first time in 25 years, which is resulting in a record that Chad Smith calls "different" and Flea calls "danceable". Which is to say, be excited but temper your expectations; this upcoming record could be a fresh new chapter or a descent into Top 40 madness. Or, I guess, both?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
78% BAND OF HORSES
While they're not the first band most folks think of when they think of consistency, Band of Horses have quietly released a trail of good albums with memorable songs, and if greatest hits albums are still a thing in 2020, theirs should be killer. Expect a few more entries to that compilation to see light of day this year, as the group is currently recording with Jason Lytle.
74% SILVERSUN PICKUPS
My seething takedown last year of Silversun Pickups' singles collection was partially unwarranted (I misinterpreted the set as a greatest hits album when it really was just a collection of singles; it wasn't widely released on CD). That said, they're working on album number four as we speak, so anyone who picked that vinyl set up is going to need a bigger box pretty soon.
71% SLAYER
I know I'm taking a risk by calling this one to finally see release in 2015, but it sort of feels like this has to happen now, lest it drag on for what feels like eternity and/or create such a level of anticipation amongst fans that it can't possibly live up to expectation. They tried to effectively build a little momentum by crapping out a free download last year; many fans took to Implode lovingly but I felt it was a little basal for Slayer at best and spilling gore from a Hanneman-shaped hole at worst.
67% CLUTCH
It still feels a bit soon for a new Clutch record, but maybe that's because there was an extended wait between Strange Cousins From The West (2009) and Earth Rocker (2013); they usually don't make fans wait much longer than two years, and a new album has been talked about for 2015, so I don't see a reason why it can't happen.
62% THE SWORD
After a run of four records of varying moods and thrills between 2006 and 2012, The Sword have cemented themselves as one of hard rock's most intriguing bands. They've also been slowly and surely getting around to following up Apocryphon, probably their most polarizing record to date. They could go anywhere with this one.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
57% COHEED AND CAMBRIA
A desire to release a new album in spring or summer has been expressed, and there's no reason to doubt that a band as creative as Coheed and Cambria has enough in the tank; after all, this is a band that released a double album a couple years back, and rarely makes fans wait long for more. Only studio delays can derail this juggernaut (see what I did there, fans?).
54% THE TRAGICALLY HIP
With all of the focus placed on touring and the recent Fully Completely reissue, it hasn't really come up in conversation so often that The Hip are working on their thirteenth album. Well, they are; at this point it's unclear what more they have to say or who cares to listen to it, but as long as there's a stage and a market for music there will be new Tragically Hip albums and scores of morons moaning that they don't sound like Up To Here.
51% RADIOHEAD
Predicting what Radiohead is going to do is about as useful an endeavour as trying to catch a fish with your bare hands; just when you think you've got them figured out, the slippery bastards outmaneuver you. Which is why I firmly believe that this time, they're going to record and release in a completely conventional way. Don't be surprised when I'm wrong on this one, okay?
46% METALLICA
While I'm giving this record a higher chance than previous years, you'll note that I still feel it's more likely not to be out this year. That's because, for all the talk about working on it, writing, recording, etc., they don't really seem to be much further ahead than they were; after years of hearing about how it's coming together, Robert Trujillo said in December that they were "blueprinting" the album. That doesn't sound anything like "finishing" to me.
42% QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE
I can't really say I'll be disappointed if Josh Homme and friends don't get a follow-up to 2013's Album of the Year out in 2015. Although, he did say around the time of the album's release that he'd like to get a follow-up out quickly. However, he recently announced plans for the album, which include waiting until he's finished with the new Eagles of Death Metal and a new installment of his long-running Desert Sessions before working on it. So, 2016 here we come?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
36% BARONESS
We know more about Baroness' fourth album now than we did last year, so as to say we know they're writing it, it won't be a double album, and John Baizley is doing the artwork. Oh, and it's going to have involvement from members of Mastodon. Here's one more thing to add to the list of knowns: I'm super fucking excited for it whenever it arrives.
35% BRAND NEW
Everything surrounding the creation of a Brand New record is shrouded in mystery and moves very slowly. It's taken so long to follow up 2009's Daisy at this point that fans have had time to craft all manner of interesting theories, the latest of which is that members have donned yeti suits and started operating under the pseudonym PPL MVR. A compelling argument, except:
a) PPL MVR are signed to Elektra, whom Brand New have no known association with, and
b) I think they have better things to do with their time. Like make a proper Brand New record.
27% GREEN DAY
Billie Joe Armstrong put a photo on Instagram a while back that mentioned "Green Day 15". A lot of folks took that to mean there's a new Green Day album coming in '15, but I'm not so sure. It absolutely could happen, but I'm not sure it will; don't forget, this is a band that's reeling from their darkest period, with Armstrong's stint in rehab and a market-flooding trio of coolly received records in 2012. There's some distance to cover before Green Day can maximize a comeback; their induction into the Hall of Fame this May is a nice start but, in terms of distancing themselves from what many perceive to be the group's biggest failure(s), I say the further the better.
24% TOOL
Look, we've been over this. I told you not to circle any dates on your 2013 calendar, but you still had faith. I was a little more optimistic about last year, but wisely erred on the side of caution. As the draught of new Tool material pushes toward the nine year mark, there seems to be palpable evidence to support the creation of an album. That said, it's going to take more than a couple of photos showing the band members in the same place at the same time to jump on board. I want to be wrong about this, and I'd like nothing more than to have my joke prediction in 2013 (that it would be released in October 2015) be right, but I still have far too many doubts, and won't be the least bit surprised to see Tool fans have to go a full decade or more without new music.
21% DEFTONES
There's no rush to follow up Koi Yo Nokan, Deftones' stunning seventh album that I still feel no regret in calling not just their best but also 2012's Album of the Year. More than two years after its release, it still hasn't overstayed its welcome on my stereo, and there's no need to run into the next one without giving it some extra care. Whenever this album comes out, it's going to have a tall order, so it's best to get it right. Regardless, the writing process is underway, so at least we know an album is coming, just don't assume it's coming this year.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
18% NINE INCH NAILS
Trent Reznor has a lot going on. With all of his success in soundtrack composing, in about five years he's crafted a more illustrious, lauded career in movies than he's had at any point over his quarter decade as Nine Inch Nails. He's also working onBeats' Apple's pending music streaming service, which has to eat up a fair chunk of the man's time. With all of these distractions (not to mention his family), there hasn't been time for his former label's greatest hits collection (for which he promised two new songs) or the reissue of 1999 double album The Fragile (which has been in the works for over five years already), let alone a full-blown new NIN album. Still, especially when it comes to Reznor, it's never wise to assume.
15% PEARL JAM
As bands get older, they get slower; it's an accepted fact of life. So, as Pearl Jam's career has dragged on, so has the wait between albums; after releasing seven albums in their first eleven years, they've managed just three in the thirteen years since. Seeing as how the minimum wait between albums since 2002 is forty months and it's only been fifteen since Lightning Bolt came out, I hope you PJ fans going through withdrawals are settled in for a long winter. And spring. And summer. You get the idea. #PJ2017
11% SOUNDGARDEN
It'd be great if Soundgarden put out a new batch of songs this year, but recently they've been a bit more focused on the past, with last year's Superunknown reissue and rarities collection. They have said they're looking to get back to work on new material in 2015, but if I've learned anything from Soundgarden it's not to expect anything quick and easy.
7% BIFFY CLYRO
It makes sense that Biffy Clyro would have a new album in 2015; they already have about twenty songs ready to go, of which the band says they expect to use about half. They've also said that they are demoing songs this month. To most bands, that means it's album making time, but Biffy Clyro aren't planning to begin making the record in earnest until summer. In the meantime, hardcore fans can look forward to an album from Simon Neil's solo project ZZC, which stands a far better chance of dropping in 2015.
4% ARCTIC MONKEYS
Well, it finally happened. After I spent years singing Arctic Monkeys' praises to deaf ears, North America has given them their (long overdue) due; AM is a certifiable smash on both sides of the pond, with songs from the album still maintaining a firm grip on the airwaves. They even gave Do I Wanna Know a Grammy nomination, which means even the old folks have heard of them! With a sixteen month old record still performing so well, no one's clamoring for the next one just yet. The Monkeys know it, too; frontman Alex Turner says he's in no rush to write new stuff. And with R U Mine? (my 2012 Song of the Year) just now starting to gain traction at radio, we could be in for a pretty substantial wait.
For those who didn't bother clicking the links above and haven't seen how the game is played, it's simple: I'm choosing 25 artists who could potentially release new albums in 2015, and assigning an arbitrary percentage chance to each corresponding with what I feel the chances are that it happens. I'm also going to give a half-assed explanation as to why I chose what I did. It should also be noted that none of these artists have officially announced release dates as of the writing of this article, which is the morning of January 14th.
Ready? Let's go!
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? THESE ARE PRACTICALLY SURE THINGS
99% INCUBUS
It hasn't been made officially official yet, but all signs point to Incubus releasing their eighth album in 2015... sort of. You see, the plan is to put out two EPs that equal an album, with the first half coming in spring and the second later in the year. So there's a chance I'll get this half right if the second part gets delayed. Whatever the case, it seems risky; after making fans wait five years for an album as tepid and lifeless as If Not Now, When?, then making them wait four more years before asking them to pay for the next one in installments, I'm just saying the first EP better have some Grade A hot shit on it.
98% LOCAL H
It wasn't a rousing success or anything, but Local H's last album (2012's Hallelujah! I'm a Bum) was a really good record that excelled in its depiction of the deteriorating American dream. For its follow-up, Scott Lucas (joined by a new drummer) has gone the Pledge Music route, promising a spring release and the title Hey, Killer. Looks like a lock to me.
95% WINTERSLEEP
I got hosed last year, when I called a new Wintersleep album a sure thing. This year, I absolutely, positively must be right. Er, right? Seriously, though, they seem to have already recorded it in Halifax, and I completely expect album number six in my hands by summer.
92% MUSE
When you're recording strings for your band's next album (as Muse was in December), your band's next album is pretty much done. Besides, it's been feeling like a 2015 release for Muse's seventh album since it was first being talked about way, way back in 2013. Whether or not it's the return to rock it's been advertised might be up in the air, but the album's release is far less in doubt; they hit the festival circuit at the end of May, and it's not unreasonable to think they'll have a new record to sell by then. Let's just hope it's a hell of a lot better than The 2nd Law, because (I can't even say it nicely) that album sucked.
86% RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
There's still plenty that can happen to delay the Chili Peppers' eleventh album, but a couple of band members have already stated their desire to have a record out this year. They've been recording without Rick Rubin at the helm for the first time in 25 years, which is resulting in a record that Chad Smith calls "different" and Flea calls "danceable". Which is to say, be excited but temper your expectations; this upcoming record could be a fresh new chapter or a descent into Top 40 madness. Or, I guess, both?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
78% BAND OF HORSES
While they're not the first band most folks think of when they think of consistency, Band of Horses have quietly released a trail of good albums with memorable songs, and if greatest hits albums are still a thing in 2020, theirs should be killer. Expect a few more entries to that compilation to see light of day this year, as the group is currently recording with Jason Lytle.
74% SILVERSUN PICKUPS
My seething takedown last year of Silversun Pickups' singles collection was partially unwarranted (I misinterpreted the set as a greatest hits album when it really was just a collection of singles; it wasn't widely released on CD). That said, they're working on album number four as we speak, so anyone who picked that vinyl set up is going to need a bigger box pretty soon.
71% SLAYER
I know I'm taking a risk by calling this one to finally see release in 2015, but it sort of feels like this has to happen now, lest it drag on for what feels like eternity and/or create such a level of anticipation amongst fans that it can't possibly live up to expectation. They tried to effectively build a little momentum by crapping out a free download last year; many fans took to Implode lovingly but I felt it was a little basal for Slayer at best and spilling gore from a Hanneman-shaped hole at worst.
67% CLUTCH
It still feels a bit soon for a new Clutch record, but maybe that's because there was an extended wait between Strange Cousins From The West (2009) and Earth Rocker (2013); they usually don't make fans wait much longer than two years, and a new album has been talked about for 2015, so I don't see a reason why it can't happen.
62% THE SWORD
After a run of four records of varying moods and thrills between 2006 and 2012, The Sword have cemented themselves as one of hard rock's most intriguing bands. They've also been slowly and surely getting around to following up Apocryphon, probably their most polarizing record to date. They could go anywhere with this one.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? COULD GO EITHER WAY
57% COHEED AND CAMBRIA
A desire to release a new album in spring or summer has been expressed, and there's no reason to doubt that a band as creative as Coheed and Cambria has enough in the tank; after all, this is a band that released a double album a couple years back, and rarely makes fans wait long for more. Only studio delays can derail this juggernaut (see what I did there, fans?).
54% THE TRAGICALLY HIP
With all of the focus placed on touring and the recent Fully Completely reissue, it hasn't really come up in conversation so often that The Hip are working on their thirteenth album. Well, they are; at this point it's unclear what more they have to say or who cares to listen to it, but as long as there's a stage and a market for music there will be new Tragically Hip albums and scores of morons moaning that they don't sound like Up To Here.
51% RADIOHEAD
Predicting what Radiohead is going to do is about as useful an endeavour as trying to catch a fish with your bare hands; just when you think you've got them figured out, the slippery bastards outmaneuver you. Which is why I firmly believe that this time, they're going to record and release in a completely conventional way. Don't be surprised when I'm wrong on this one, okay?
46% METALLICA
While I'm giving this record a higher chance than previous years, you'll note that I still feel it's more likely not to be out this year. That's because, for all the talk about working on it, writing, recording, etc., they don't really seem to be much further ahead than they were; after years of hearing about how it's coming together, Robert Trujillo said in December that they were "blueprinting" the album. That doesn't sound anything like "finishing" to me.
42% QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE
I can't really say I'll be disappointed if Josh Homme and friends don't get a follow-up to 2013's Album of the Year out in 2015. Although, he did say around the time of the album's release that he'd like to get a follow-up out quickly. However, he recently announced plans for the album, which include waiting until he's finished with the new Eagles of Death Metal and a new installment of his long-running Desert Sessions before working on it. So, 2016 here we come?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH
36% BARONESS
We know more about Baroness' fourth album now than we did last year, so as to say we know they're writing it, it won't be a double album, and John Baizley is doing the artwork. Oh, and it's going to have involvement from members of Mastodon. Here's one more thing to add to the list of knowns: I'm super fucking excited for it whenever it arrives.
35% BRAND NEW
Everything surrounding the creation of a Brand New record is shrouded in mystery and moves very slowly. It's taken so long to follow up 2009's Daisy at this point that fans have had time to craft all manner of interesting theories, the latest of which is that members have donned yeti suits and started operating under the pseudonym PPL MVR. A compelling argument, except:
a) PPL MVR are signed to Elektra, whom Brand New have no known association with, and
b) I think they have better things to do with their time. Like make a proper Brand New record.
27% GREEN DAY
Billie Joe Armstrong put a photo on Instagram a while back that mentioned "Green Day 15". A lot of folks took that to mean there's a new Green Day album coming in '15, but I'm not so sure. It absolutely could happen, but I'm not sure it will; don't forget, this is a band that's reeling from their darkest period, with Armstrong's stint in rehab and a market-flooding trio of coolly received records in 2012. There's some distance to cover before Green Day can maximize a comeback; their induction into the Hall of Fame this May is a nice start but, in terms of distancing themselves from what many perceive to be the group's biggest failure(s), I say the further the better.
24% TOOL
Look, we've been over this. I told you not to circle any dates on your 2013 calendar, but you still had faith. I was a little more optimistic about last year, but wisely erred on the side of caution. As the draught of new Tool material pushes toward the nine year mark, there seems to be palpable evidence to support the creation of an album. That said, it's going to take more than a couple of photos showing the band members in the same place at the same time to jump on board. I want to be wrong about this, and I'd like nothing more than to have my joke prediction in 2013 (that it would be released in October 2015) be right, but I still have far too many doubts, and won't be the least bit surprised to see Tool fans have to go a full decade or more without new music.
21% DEFTONES
There's no rush to follow up Koi Yo Nokan, Deftones' stunning seventh album that I still feel no regret in calling not just their best but also 2012's Album of the Year. More than two years after its release, it still hasn't overstayed its welcome on my stereo, and there's no need to run into the next one without giving it some extra care. Whenever this album comes out, it's going to have a tall order, so it's best to get it right. Regardless, the writing process is underway, so at least we know an album is coming, just don't assume it's coming this year.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? BE SHOCKED IF IT HAPPENS
18% NINE INCH NAILS
Trent Reznor has a lot going on. With all of his success in soundtrack composing, in about five years he's crafted a more illustrious, lauded career in movies than he's had at any point over his quarter decade as Nine Inch Nails. He's also working on
15% PEARL JAM
As bands get older, they get slower; it's an accepted fact of life. So, as Pearl Jam's career has dragged on, so has the wait between albums; after releasing seven albums in their first eleven years, they've managed just three in the thirteen years since. Seeing as how the minimum wait between albums since 2002 is forty months and it's only been fifteen since Lightning Bolt came out, I hope you PJ fans going through withdrawals are settled in for a long winter. And spring. And summer. You get the idea. #PJ2017
11% SOUNDGARDEN
It'd be great if Soundgarden put out a new batch of songs this year, but recently they've been a bit more focused on the past, with last year's Superunknown reissue and rarities collection. They have said they're looking to get back to work on new material in 2015, but if I've learned anything from Soundgarden it's not to expect anything quick and easy.
7% BIFFY CLYRO
It makes sense that Biffy Clyro would have a new album in 2015; they already have about twenty songs ready to go, of which the band says they expect to use about half. They've also said that they are demoing songs this month. To most bands, that means it's album making time, but Biffy Clyro aren't planning to begin making the record in earnest until summer. In the meantime, hardcore fans can look forward to an album from Simon Neil's solo project ZZC, which stands a far better chance of dropping in 2015.
4% ARCTIC MONKEYS
Well, it finally happened. After I spent years singing Arctic Monkeys' praises to deaf ears, North America has given them their (long overdue) due; AM is a certifiable smash on both sides of the pond, with songs from the album still maintaining a firm grip on the airwaves. They even gave Do I Wanna Know a Grammy nomination, which means even the old folks have heard of them! With a sixteen month old record still performing so well, no one's clamoring for the next one just yet. The Monkeys know it, too; frontman Alex Turner says he's in no rush to write new stuff. And with R U Mine? (my 2012 Song of the Year) just now starting to gain traction at radio, we could be in for a pretty substantial wait.
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