Hear Me Out: What Are The Chances? 2014 Edition
Last January, I decided to have a little fun and try to predict not only who would release albums in 2013, but who probably wouldn't as well. For the most part I think I did alright, so why not try and let it roll for another year?
Here now, using my completely and totally rational calculations, are the chances the following twenty-five bands (none of which have formally announced a new studio album release for the year as of yet) get a new record into our earholes in 2014:
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things
Last Year's Predictions: Queens Of The Stone Age, Volbeat, Dillinger Escape Plan, Wolfmother, Black Keys, Arcade Fire
I gave myself four and a half out of six on account of Andrew Stockdale releasing what was originally planned to be a Wolfmother album under his own name instead.
96% Wintersleep
No reason doubt this one. They've admittedly been hard at work on their sixth album since summer and, with a handful of shows in late January/early February, it sure looks like they're in the "road testing" phase of final preparations.
95% The Black Keys
Having burned me last year after praising them on their prolific album output, now The Black Keys are in the midst of their longest gap yet between records. Sure, it's just over two years, but I have to believe that they're itching to get a new record done and out in 2014.
90% Spoon
Speaking of long gaps, it's been nearly four years now since the last Spoon record. They haven't made us wait this long for a record before either. But all signs point to Britt Daniel & co.'s eighth album finishing up soon.
83% Rancid
I know I shouldn't be trusting them, but it really does seem like Rancid's eighth album (and first in almost five years) will see the light of day in the coming year. They've already titled it Honor Is All We Know, and their drummer promised it in early 2014. If honor is truly all they know, take this one to the bank. Sure, they've made us endure delays before (like the six year wait between albums six and seven), but I've got a good feeling about this one.
82% Black Label Society
Zakk Wylde used to be one of hard rock's most prolific exports; he actually released a new Black Label Society studio album every year from 2002 to 2006. Since then, there's only been one (2010's Order Of The Black). Following that album up has been slow going, but Wylde claims he's on the case.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not
Last Year's Predictions: Against Me!, Avenged Sevenfold, The Hold Steady
One out of three ain't bad? To be fair, I wasn't far off on the two I didn't get right; Against Me! releases Transgender Dysphoria Blues in three weeks, and The Hold Steady completed recording their sixth album in summer with a release date hopefully coming down the pipeline any day now.
79% Dead Sara
Not just a good debut, Dead Sara's self titled 2012 album was one of my outright favourites of the year. Their cover of Nirvana's Heart Shaped Box was released in November, and they're well on their way to wrapping up their first record for a major label. So, the global domination I predicted two years ago is just a wee bit behind schedule. But don't take it from me; Dave Grohl has said "they should be the next biggest rock band in the world". Prepare yourselves.
78% Foo Fighters
As though I'd planned that segue, let's talk about Dave Grohl some more. I don't know what he's got up his sleeve for the Foo Fighters' eighth album, but I know it's being recorded "in a way that no one's ever done before", and I know it's happening soon.
70% Mastodon
It's being worked on now; at what stage it's at or how much tinkering is yet to be done I'm not sure. Still, Mastodon aren't the type of band to spend years in a studio, so expect this one to drop by fall at the latest.
68% Kasabian
There's a fair amount of pressure on Kasabian in the UK to follow up 2011's excellent Velociraptor! Here on the other side of the pond, crickets. If they couldn't change North America's mind with that album, they probably never will. So here's hoping they indulge every last quintessentially British whim they have and make album five one that doesn't cater to closed minded ignorance. Not that Velociraptor! did or anything, but I'd like to see them make an album with no aspirations of American acceptance.
62% Fucked Up
It stands to reason something must be in the works, right? It's been claimed that a new studio album is almost ready, and for a band as prone to just shitting out awesome music at the drop of a hat I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the follow-up to David Comes To Life by summer.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way
Last Year's Predictions: Arctic Monkeys, Rancid, My Chemical Romance
Let's call this one a three way tie; one came out, one didn't, one band broke up.
56% The Gaslight Anthem
With a B-sides collection hitting shelves so early in 2014 and the guys laying the groundwork on a proper studio album presently, I'm optimistic for a fall release.
47% Torche
Why? Why not? I've got nothing to go on here, it just feels like it could (and perhaps should) happen.
46% Baroness
Now that they're (mostly) recuperated from 2012's awful bus crash and playing shows again, there's a possibility that Baroness are eager to move on from past events and build a new record for a brighter future. Or, maybe they're content to keep touring and give Yellow & Green the full promotional cycle it deserves.
44% Tool
I'll come right out and say it; I have doubts about this one. But the proverbial pieces are starting to fit, and it looks quite a bit more promising now than it did this time last year. Still, by giving it a percentage below the fifty, I think I've got an out when it gets pushed back to 2015.
42% Slayer
The thing about the next Slayer record (let's be straight up, if there is one) is that it there are a myriad of reasons it could be delayed even if it's being worked on right this second. There's a lot of uncertainty and turmoil surrounding this band recently, and the only thing I truly care to predict about the outcome of the next Slayer record is bitter disappointment where Jeff Hanneman used to be.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath
Last Year's Predictions: John Butler Trio, Pearl Jam, Mastodon, Brand New, Fucked Up
Only one of five saw light of day in 2013 (Pearl Jam), so I'll take that as a win.
34% Machine Head
They've already stated they're taking their time and getting this one exactly how they want it. While that still could mean a 2014 release for the follow-up to Unto The Locust, I don't expect it until 2015.
31% Brand New
Just like last year, we're being told that things are happening in the Brand New camp. And, just like last year, it seems those things are happening slowly. I'll give it a slightly higher chance of releasing because I believe it should come out in 2014. But that doesn't mean it will.
26% Slipknot
It seems like it's all kind of unraveling for Slipknot, with longtime drummer Joey Jordison leaving the fold as they work on their fifth album. And yet, it's promised business as usual, with work moving forward on a rumoured double album. However, there is that upcoming Stone Sour tour that Jim Root is sitting out to focus on the Slipknot record; am I the only one who's getting the feeling this book's got a lot more chapters in it before the story is told?
25% Modest Mouse
Songs for a new Modest Mouse record definitely exist; they've played a handful live. As far as the album itself? Nobody knows. Could come out in 2014. Probably won't. But I definitely want it to.
22% Red Hot Chili Peppers
Supposedly, the Chili Peppers are due to huddle up any time now to get started on ideas for album number eleven. Sometimes, they get together and make a shitload of music, and an album is quickly born. I don't get that feeling this time.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens
Last Year's Predictions: Tool, Metallica, Modest Mouse, Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails
My favourite category, because I got 4 out of 5 right and it really was kind of shocking when Nine Inch Nails happened, even though I gave a reason why it could alongside its paltry one percent chance.
12% Muse
Even Matt Bellamy doesn't think a new Muse album will be out in 2014, but there's always the chance that the promised return to the essence of the band he's talked about recently will make for a faster recording process.
10% Deftones
I wouldn't expect a new studio record from Deftones so soon after the amazing Koi No Yokan, but it was only a two year gap between it and Diamond Eyes, so who knows? Although, if anything, I would think Deftones' next release will be Eros, the album they were working on with fallen brother Chi when he had his (eventually) fatal accident in 2008.
7% Green Day
While I personally think it would be silly to come back with a new album only two years (give or take) after a trio of albums that pretty much flopped when they oversaturated the market, Green Day may be a bit overeager to put that whole year behind them and start from scratch. Still, I'd have to think they'd want to take their time on the next one considering just how haphazard and undercooked Uno, Dos and Tre sounded.
4% Metallica
Exactly the same percentage as last year because it's just as unlikely. I thought maybe having the freedom of their own label would get the creative juices flowing and get them eagerly working on new material. Turns out all their creativity lately has been going into revenue generators (like the 3D concert flick Through The Never, as well as its obligatory soundtrack) and attention grabbers (like playing a show in Antarctica). As long as there's money and headlines to make, Metallica will keep finding new reasons to delay the inevitable pissing and moaning that's come with each new Metallica record released in the past 23 years.
3% Radiohead
I really don't see this happening, especially since Thom Yorke expressed interest in the band having a proper break. I think that's fair enough, and I'll take it a step further and hypothesize that maybe the fans could use a break too after 2011's underwhelming The King Of Limbs. If Radiohead do release a new album in 2014, they won't have to use the same surprise techniques they've utilized in the past. No one's expecting it, and not many more are anticipating it.
Thanks for reading; these prediction posts are a lot of fun to make. Now, bring on 2014!
Here now, using my completely and totally rational calculations, are the chances the following twenty-five bands (none of which have formally announced a new studio album release for the year as of yet) get a new record into our earholes in 2014:
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things
Last Year's Predictions: Queens Of The Stone Age, Volbeat, Dillinger Escape Plan, Wolfmother, Black Keys, Arcade Fire
I gave myself four and a half out of six on account of Andrew Stockdale releasing what was originally planned to be a Wolfmother album under his own name instead.
96% Wintersleep
No reason doubt this one. They've admittedly been hard at work on their sixth album since summer and, with a handful of shows in late January/early February, it sure looks like they're in the "road testing" phase of final preparations.
95% The Black Keys
Having burned me last year after praising them on their prolific album output, now The Black Keys are in the midst of their longest gap yet between records. Sure, it's just over two years, but I have to believe that they're itching to get a new record done and out in 2014.
90% Spoon
Speaking of long gaps, it's been nearly four years now since the last Spoon record. They haven't made us wait this long for a record before either. But all signs point to Britt Daniel & co.'s eighth album finishing up soon.
83% Rancid
I know I shouldn't be trusting them, but it really does seem like Rancid's eighth album (and first in almost five years) will see the light of day in the coming year. They've already titled it Honor Is All We Know, and their drummer promised it in early 2014. If honor is truly all they know, take this one to the bank. Sure, they've made us endure delays before (like the six year wait between albums six and seven), but I've got a good feeling about this one.
82% Black Label Society
Zakk Wylde used to be one of hard rock's most prolific exports; he actually released a new Black Label Society studio album every year from 2002 to 2006. Since then, there's only been one (2010's Order Of The Black). Following that album up has been slow going, but Wylde claims he's on the case.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not
Last Year's Predictions: Against Me!, Avenged Sevenfold, The Hold Steady
One out of three ain't bad? To be fair, I wasn't far off on the two I didn't get right; Against Me! releases Transgender Dysphoria Blues in three weeks, and The Hold Steady completed recording their sixth album in summer with a release date hopefully coming down the pipeline any day now.
79% Dead Sara
Not just a good debut, Dead Sara's self titled 2012 album was one of my outright favourites of the year. Their cover of Nirvana's Heart Shaped Box was released in November, and they're well on their way to wrapping up their first record for a major label. So, the global domination I predicted two years ago is just a wee bit behind schedule. But don't take it from me; Dave Grohl has said "they should be the next biggest rock band in the world". Prepare yourselves.
78% Foo Fighters
As though I'd planned that segue, let's talk about Dave Grohl some more. I don't know what he's got up his sleeve for the Foo Fighters' eighth album, but I know it's being recorded "in a way that no one's ever done before", and I know it's happening soon.
70% Mastodon
It's being worked on now; at what stage it's at or how much tinkering is yet to be done I'm not sure. Still, Mastodon aren't the type of band to spend years in a studio, so expect this one to drop by fall at the latest.
68% Kasabian
There's a fair amount of pressure on Kasabian in the UK to follow up 2011's excellent Velociraptor! Here on the other side of the pond, crickets. If they couldn't change North America's mind with that album, they probably never will. So here's hoping they indulge every last quintessentially British whim they have and make album five one that doesn't cater to closed minded ignorance. Not that Velociraptor! did or anything, but I'd like to see them make an album with no aspirations of American acceptance.
62% Fucked Up
It stands to reason something must be in the works, right? It's been claimed that a new studio album is almost ready, and for a band as prone to just shitting out awesome music at the drop of a hat I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the follow-up to David Comes To Life by summer.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way
Last Year's Predictions: Arctic Monkeys, Rancid, My Chemical Romance
Let's call this one a three way tie; one came out, one didn't, one band broke up.
56% The Gaslight Anthem
With a B-sides collection hitting shelves so early in 2014 and the guys laying the groundwork on a proper studio album presently, I'm optimistic for a fall release.
47% Torche
Why? Why not? I've got nothing to go on here, it just feels like it could (and perhaps should) happen.
46% Baroness
Now that they're (mostly) recuperated from 2012's awful bus crash and playing shows again, there's a possibility that Baroness are eager to move on from past events and build a new record for a brighter future. Or, maybe they're content to keep touring and give Yellow & Green the full promotional cycle it deserves.
44% Tool
I'll come right out and say it; I have doubts about this one. But the proverbial pieces are starting to fit, and it looks quite a bit more promising now than it did this time last year. Still, by giving it a percentage below the fifty, I think I've got an out when it gets pushed back to 2015.
42% Slayer
The thing about the next Slayer record (let's be straight up, if there is one) is that it there are a myriad of reasons it could be delayed even if it's being worked on right this second. There's a lot of uncertainty and turmoil surrounding this band recently, and the only thing I truly care to predict about the outcome of the next Slayer record is bitter disappointment where Jeff Hanneman used to be.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath
Last Year's Predictions: John Butler Trio, Pearl Jam, Mastodon, Brand New, Fucked Up
Only one of five saw light of day in 2013 (Pearl Jam), so I'll take that as a win.
34% Machine Head
They've already stated they're taking their time and getting this one exactly how they want it. While that still could mean a 2014 release for the follow-up to Unto The Locust, I don't expect it until 2015.
31% Brand New
Just like last year, we're being told that things are happening in the Brand New camp. And, just like last year, it seems those things are happening slowly. I'll give it a slightly higher chance of releasing because I believe it should come out in 2014. But that doesn't mean it will.
26% Slipknot
It seems like it's all kind of unraveling for Slipknot, with longtime drummer Joey Jordison leaving the fold as they work on their fifth album. And yet, it's promised business as usual, with work moving forward on a rumoured double album. However, there is that upcoming Stone Sour tour that Jim Root is sitting out to focus on the Slipknot record; am I the only one who's getting the feeling this book's got a lot more chapters in it before the story is told?
25% Modest Mouse
Songs for a new Modest Mouse record definitely exist; they've played a handful live. As far as the album itself? Nobody knows. Could come out in 2014. Probably won't. But I definitely want it to.
22% Red Hot Chili Peppers
Supposedly, the Chili Peppers are due to huddle up any time now to get started on ideas for album number eleven. Sometimes, they get together and make a shitload of music, and an album is quickly born. I don't get that feeling this time.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens
Last Year's Predictions: Tool, Metallica, Modest Mouse, Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails
My favourite category, because I got 4 out of 5 right and it really was kind of shocking when Nine Inch Nails happened, even though I gave a reason why it could alongside its paltry one percent chance.
12% Muse
Even Matt Bellamy doesn't think a new Muse album will be out in 2014, but there's always the chance that the promised return to the essence of the band he's talked about recently will make for a faster recording process.
10% Deftones
I wouldn't expect a new studio record from Deftones so soon after the amazing Koi No Yokan, but it was only a two year gap between it and Diamond Eyes, so who knows? Although, if anything, I would think Deftones' next release will be Eros, the album they were working on with fallen brother Chi when he had his (eventually) fatal accident in 2008.
7% Green Day
While I personally think it would be silly to come back with a new album only two years (give or take) after a trio of albums that pretty much flopped when they oversaturated the market, Green Day may be a bit overeager to put that whole year behind them and start from scratch. Still, I'd have to think they'd want to take their time on the next one considering just how haphazard and undercooked Uno, Dos and Tre sounded.
4% Metallica
Exactly the same percentage as last year because it's just as unlikely. I thought maybe having the freedom of their own label would get the creative juices flowing and get them eagerly working on new material. Turns out all their creativity lately has been going into revenue generators (like the 3D concert flick Through The Never, as well as its obligatory soundtrack) and attention grabbers (like playing a show in Antarctica). As long as there's money and headlines to make, Metallica will keep finding new reasons to delay the inevitable pissing and moaning that's come with each new Metallica record released in the past 23 years.
3% Radiohead
I really don't see this happening, especially since Thom Yorke expressed interest in the band having a proper break. I think that's fair enough, and I'll take it a step further and hypothesize that maybe the fans could use a break too after 2011's underwhelming The King Of Limbs. If Radiohead do release a new album in 2014, they won't have to use the same surprise techniques they've utilized in the past. No one's expecting it, and not many more are anticipating it.
Thanks for reading; these prediction posts are a lot of fun to make. Now, bring on 2014!
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