Hear Me Out: What Are The Chances? 2014 Edition (Updated)
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Because it's boring as sin this time of year around here, and because I'm a total dork, I thought it might be fun to revisit my "What Are The Chances" post from New Year's Eve 2013, in which I haphazardly assigned percentage chances that certain artists would release new albums in 2014. Taking stock on it from here, it looks like everything is going according to plan, for the most part. Here, then, is an updated version of that post featuring both my original thoughts and new ones (in larger, italicized font) with the benefit of hindsight.
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things
96% Wintersleep
No reason doubt this one. They've admittedly been hard at work on their sixth album since summer and, with a handful of shows in late January/early February, it sure looks like they're in the "road testing" phase of final preparations.
It seemed like the most brainless of no-brainers at the start of the year, but somehow Wintersleep hasn't come through with album six yet. In fact, until June we hadn't even gotten an update an the album's status. Now, it looks like they'll only be getting around to recording at summer's end. So, I suppose it goes to show you can never consider anything a "sure thing" until you're sure it's a thing. Deep, right?
95% The Black Keys
Having burned me last year after praising them on their prolific album output, now The Black Keys are in the midst of their longest gap yet between records. Sure, it's just over two years, but I have to believe that they're itching to get a new record done and out in 2014.
As predicted, they got the thing done and out. It kind of sucked, but they put it out.
90% Spoon
Speaking of long gaps, it's been nearly four years now since the last Spoon record. They haven't made us wait this long for a record before either. But all signs point to Britt Daniel & co.'s eighth album finishing up soon.
As it turns out, Spoon wasn't just taking their time working on their new album, they were also getting themselves a new record deal. They Want My Soul is complete and being released in just a couple of weeks on up-and-coming Universal imprint Loma Vista.
83% Rancid
I know I shouldn't be trusting them, but it really does seem like Rancid's eighth album (and first in almost five years) will see the light of day in the coming year. They've already titled it Honor Is All We Know, and their drummer promised it in early 2014. If honor is truly all they know, take this one to the bank. Sure, they've made us endure delays before (like the six year wait between albums six and seven), but I've got a good feeling about this one.
Sometimes, my instincts are painfully accurate. After the drummer's promise led to a pencilled in June release date for Honor Is All We Know, Rancid has somehow managed not only to let June slip by without a new record but has also given their fans absolutely no updates on the status of the record. In January I acknowledged that I shouldn't trust them, and now I know not to. Looks like album eight could be their most ironically titled yet.
82% Black Label Society
Zakk Wylde used to be one of hard rock's most prolific exports; he actually released a new Black Label Society studio album every year from 2002 to 2006. Since then, there's only been one (2010'sOrder Of The Black). Following that album up has been slow going, but Wylde claims he's on the case.
Zakk wasn't just on the case of making a new album, he was in the finishing stages. Catacombs Of The Black Vatican came out in April.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not
79% Dead Sara
Not just a good debut, Dead Sara's self titled 2012 album was one of my outright favourites of the year. Their cover of Nirvana's Heart Shaped Box was released in November, and they're well on their way to wrapping up their first record for a major label. So, the global domination I predicted two years ago is just a wee bit behind schedule. But don't take it from me; Dave Grohl has said "they should be the next biggest rock band in the world". Prepare yourselves.
All signs point to Dead Sara's second album being fully recorded, and it's presumably in the final tweaking stages while the band gets out for some gigs over the summer. Whether it sees the light of day by year's end most likely depends on their label at this point.
78% Foo Fighters
As though I'd planned that segue, let's talk about Dave Grohl some more. I don't know what he's got up his sleeve for the Foo Fighters' eighth album, but I know it's being recorded "in a way that no one's ever done before", and I know it's happening soon.
Well, we know a lot more about the Foos' eighth album; it reportedly consists of eight songs recorded in eight different studios (maybe they're all eight minutes long too), a process which will be chronicled on Sonic Highways, an upcoming HBO show. And, they've all but confirmed a November release date. Unlike some rock stars, I fully trust Dave Grohl because he's not just a badass mofo, but also a stand-up guy. Book it. Bonus prediction: we'll get full confirmation announcement on August 8th, keeping with the emerging "eights" theme.
70% Mastodon
It's being worked on now; at what stage it's at or how much tinkering is yet to be done I'm not sure. Still, Mastodon aren't the type of band to spend years in a studio, so expect this one to drop by fall at the latest.
I wasn't far off on this one, with Once More 'Round The Sun dropping maybe just a little earlier than I thought it would but kicking just as much ass as I knew it would.
68% Kasabian
There's a fair amount of pressure on Kasabian in the UK to follow up 2011's excellent Velociraptor!Here on the other side of the pond, crickets. If they couldn't change North America's mind with that album, they probably never will. So here's hoping they indulge every last quintessentially British whim they have and make album five one that doesn't cater to closed minded ignorance. Not thatVelociraptor! did or anything, but I'd like to see them make an album with no aspirations of American acceptance.
Sometimes I'm right, sometimes it's a bit spooky, and sometimes I think the band reads my blog. They did indeed deliver a new album to their UK fans in June, and surely made it "with no aspirations of american acceptance"; it hasn't been released in North America as of this article's publication.
62% Fucked Up
It stands to reason something must be in the works, right? It's been claimed that a new studio album is almost ready, and for a band as prone to just shitting out awesome music at the drop of a hat I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the follow-up to David Comes To Life by summer.
Another one that fell right in line with my prediction, Glass Boys came out two weeks before summer started.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way
56% The Gaslight Anthem
With a B-sides collection hitting shelves so early in 2014 and the guys laying the groundwork on a proper studio album presently, I'm optimistic for a fall release.
This section gets a little dicey, but it starts off with what's now a sure thing; Get Hurt, The Gaslight Anthem's intriguing fifth album, is coming out in mid-August (barring the apocalypse, of course).
47% Torche
Why? Why not? I've got nothing to go on here, it just feels like it could (and perhaps should) happen.
Well, I've got more to go on now, at least; in February, Torche announced not just their signing to marquee metal label Relapse but also that they were recording their new album with an anticipated summer release. There hasn't been much said about it since, but I get the sense that it will be announced any day now.
46% Baroness
Now that they're (mostly) recuperated from 2012's awful bus crash and playing shows again, there's a possibility that Baroness are eager to move on from past events and build a new record for a brighter future. Or, maybe they're content to keep touring and give Yellow & Green the full promotional cycle it deserves.
It's been pretty quiet on the Baroness front in 2014, which tells me they're up to something. Or, they could be taking it easy. We'll see soon enough, I suppose.
44% Tool
I'll come right out and say it; I have doubts about this one. But the proverbial pieces are starting to fit, and it looks quite a bit more promising now than it did this time last year. Still, by giving it a percentage below the fifty, I think I've got an out when it gets pushed back to 2015.
LOL.
42% Slayer
The thing about the next Slayer record (let's be straight up, if there is one) is that it there are a myriad of reasons it could be delayed even if it's being worked on right this second. There's a lot of uncertainty and turmoil surrounding this band recently, and the only thing I truly care to predict about the outcome of the next Slayer record is bitter disappointment where Jeff Hanneman used to be.
Still no sign of the actual album, but Slayer did release a new song earlier this year. And boy, was it disappointing.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath
34% Machine Head
They've already stated they're taking their time and getting this one exactly how they want it. While that still could mean a 2014 release for the follow-up to Unto The Locust, I don't expect it until 2015.
This one's still kind of hard to predict, although recent updates lean me toward sooner rather than later, with a recent interview touching on details of the album's artwork and special editions. I could see this one hitting in October, maybe even September.
31% Brand New
Just like last year, we're being told that things are happening in the Brand New camp. And, just like last year, it seems those things are happening slowly. I'll give it a slightly higher chance of releasing because I believe it should come out in 2014. But that doesn't mean it will.
Things are still moving slowly around Brand New; a few photos here, a few studio mentions there, but there's still no concrete evidence of a new record nor any reason to believe it will arrive this year.
26% Slipknot
It seems like it's all kind of unraveling for Slipknot, with longtime drummer Joey Jordison leaving the fold as they work on their fifth album. And yet, it's promised business as usual, with work moving forward on a rumoured double album. However, there is that upcoming Stone Sour tour that Jim Root is sitting out to focus on the Slipknot record; am I the only one who's getting the feeling this book's got a lot more chapters in it before the story is told?
It's still hard to say at this point what Slipknot's fifth album is going to sound like or when it will arrive, but in the past couple of weeks teaser videos have started to surface. It's not much to go on, but it stands to reason that it may see release in 2014 if the promotional gears have already started turning.
25% Modest Mouse
Songs for a new Modest Mouse record definitely exist; they've played a handful live. As far as the album itself? Nobody knows. Could come out in 2014. Probably won't. But I definitely want it to.
They're playing some shows this year. That's good, right? Sure, unless you're expecting them to finish a new album.
22% Red Hot Chili Peppers
Supposedly, the Chili Peppers are due to huddle up any time now to get started on ideas for album number eleven. Sometimes, they get together and make a shitload of music, and an album is quickly born. I don't get that feeling this time.
Yep, sounds about right. They've tinkered around in the studio, but don't have any firm plans for making a record as of yet.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens
12% Muse
Even Matt Bellamy doesn't think a new Muse album will be out in 2014, but there's always the chance that the promised return to the essence of the band he's talked about recently will make for a faster recording process.
According to reports, Muse started work on a new album in May. That said, don't expect to hear anything else about it for a while.
10% Deftones
I wouldn't expect a new studio record from Deftones so soon after the amazing Koi No Yokan, but it was only a two year gap between it and Diamond Eyes, so who knows? Although, if anything, I would think Deftones' next release will be Eros, the album they were working on with fallen brother Chi when he had his (eventually) fatal accident in 2008.
Still no word on either Eros or a new album out of the Deftones camp, but the band did share one of the Eros tracks on the anniversary of Chi Cheng's death in April. Two days later, their label removed it from YouTube claiming copyright infringement. Dicks.
7% Green Day
While I personally think it would be silly to come back with a new album only two years (give or take) after a trio of albums that pretty much flopped when they oversaturated the market, Green Day may be a bit overeager to put that whole year behind them and start from scratch. Still, I'd have to think they'd want to take their time on the next one considering just how haphazard and undercooked Uno,Dos and Tre sounded.
In the case of Green Day, no news is good news; it appears as though they're willing to give fans lots of time to digest that hastily released trilogy of albums that had enough good songs for one.
4% Metallica
Exactly the same percentage as last year because it's just as unlikely. I thought maybe having the freedom of their own label would get the creative juices flowing and get them eagerly working on new material. Turns out all their creativity lately has been going into revenue generators (like the 3D concert flick Through The Never, as well as its obligatory soundtrack) and attention grabbers (like playing a show in Antarctica). As long as there's money and headlines to make, Metallica will keep finding new reasons to delay the inevitable pissing and moaning that's come with each new Metallica record released in the past 23 years.
It looks clear that this one won't see light of day until well into 2015 if not later, though Metallica are at least attempting to appease their fans through all request setlists and one new song released (albeit in unfinished form). But I have to wonder what it is about eight minute long songs that don't have much in the way of structure that the band has enamoured themselves so heavily with in recent years; Lords of Summer is okay, I guess, but doesn't it sound like a band trying way too hard?
3% Radiohead
I really don't see this happening, especially since Thom Yorke expressed interest in the band having a proper break. I think that's fair enough, and I'll take it a step further and hypothesize that maybe the fans could use a break too after 2011's underwhelming The King Of Limbs. If Radiohead do release a new album in 2014, they won't have to use the same surprise techniques they've utilized in the past. No one's expecting it, and not many more are anticipating it.
With the band expected to enter the studio in September, it seems highly unlikely we'll get a new album in 2014. They'll have to pull one of those big surprise stunts in order for that to happen, which wouldn't surprise anyone at this point. Still, I don't see it happening, maybe not even next year, unless they're completely focused on it.
Because it's boring as sin this time of year around here, and because I'm a total dork, I thought it might be fun to revisit my "What Are The Chances" post from New Year's Eve 2013, in which I haphazardly assigned percentage chances that certain artists would release new albums in 2014. Taking stock on it from here, it looks like everything is going according to plan, for the most part. Here, then, is an updated version of that post featuring both my original thoughts and new ones (in larger, italicized font) with the benefit of hindsight.
What Are The Chances? These Are Practically Sure Things
96% Wintersleep
No reason doubt this one. They've admittedly been hard at work on their sixth album since summer and, with a handful of shows in late January/early February, it sure looks like they're in the "road testing" phase of final preparations.
It seemed like the most brainless of no-brainers at the start of the year, but somehow Wintersleep hasn't come through with album six yet. In fact, until June we hadn't even gotten an update an the album's status. Now, it looks like they'll only be getting around to recording at summer's end. So, I suppose it goes to show you can never consider anything a "sure thing" until you're sure it's a thing. Deep, right?
95% The Black Keys
Having burned me last year after praising them on their prolific album output, now The Black Keys are in the midst of their longest gap yet between records. Sure, it's just over two years, but I have to believe that they're itching to get a new record done and out in 2014.
As predicted, they got the thing done and out. It kind of sucked, but they put it out.
90% Spoon
Speaking of long gaps, it's been nearly four years now since the last Spoon record. They haven't made us wait this long for a record before either. But all signs point to Britt Daniel & co.'s eighth album finishing up soon.
As it turns out, Spoon wasn't just taking their time working on their new album, they were also getting themselves a new record deal. They Want My Soul is complete and being released in just a couple of weeks on up-and-coming Universal imprint Loma Vista.
83% Rancid
I know I shouldn't be trusting them, but it really does seem like Rancid's eighth album (and first in almost five years) will see the light of day in the coming year. They've already titled it Honor Is All We Know, and their drummer promised it in early 2014. If honor is truly all they know, take this one to the bank. Sure, they've made us endure delays before (like the six year wait between albums six and seven), but I've got a good feeling about this one.
Sometimes, my instincts are painfully accurate. After the drummer's promise led to a pencilled in June release date for Honor Is All We Know, Rancid has somehow managed not only to let June slip by without a new record but has also given their fans absolutely no updates on the status of the record. In January I acknowledged that I shouldn't trust them, and now I know not to. Looks like album eight could be their most ironically titled yet.
82% Black Label Society
Zakk Wylde used to be one of hard rock's most prolific exports; he actually released a new Black Label Society studio album every year from 2002 to 2006. Since then, there's only been one (2010'sOrder Of The Black). Following that album up has been slow going, but Wylde claims he's on the case.
Zakk wasn't just on the case of making a new album, he was in the finishing stages. Catacombs Of The Black Vatican came out in April.
What Are The Chances? More Likely Than Not
79% Dead Sara
Not just a good debut, Dead Sara's self titled 2012 album was one of my outright favourites of the year. Their cover of Nirvana's Heart Shaped Box was released in November, and they're well on their way to wrapping up their first record for a major label. So, the global domination I predicted two years ago is just a wee bit behind schedule. But don't take it from me; Dave Grohl has said "they should be the next biggest rock band in the world". Prepare yourselves.
All signs point to Dead Sara's second album being fully recorded, and it's presumably in the final tweaking stages while the band gets out for some gigs over the summer. Whether it sees the light of day by year's end most likely depends on their label at this point.
78% Foo Fighters
As though I'd planned that segue, let's talk about Dave Grohl some more. I don't know what he's got up his sleeve for the Foo Fighters' eighth album, but I know it's being recorded "in a way that no one's ever done before", and I know it's happening soon.
Well, we know a lot more about the Foos' eighth album; it reportedly consists of eight songs recorded in eight different studios (maybe they're all eight minutes long too), a process which will be chronicled on Sonic Highways, an upcoming HBO show. And, they've all but confirmed a November release date. Unlike some rock stars, I fully trust Dave Grohl because he's not just a badass mofo, but also a stand-up guy. Book it. Bonus prediction: we'll get full confirmation announcement on August 8th, keeping with the emerging "eights" theme.
70% Mastodon
It's being worked on now; at what stage it's at or how much tinkering is yet to be done I'm not sure. Still, Mastodon aren't the type of band to spend years in a studio, so expect this one to drop by fall at the latest.
I wasn't far off on this one, with Once More 'Round The Sun dropping maybe just a little earlier than I thought it would but kicking just as much ass as I knew it would.
68% Kasabian
There's a fair amount of pressure on Kasabian in the UK to follow up 2011's excellent Velociraptor!Here on the other side of the pond, crickets. If they couldn't change North America's mind with that album, they probably never will. So here's hoping they indulge every last quintessentially British whim they have and make album five one that doesn't cater to closed minded ignorance. Not thatVelociraptor! did or anything, but I'd like to see them make an album with no aspirations of American acceptance.
Sometimes I'm right, sometimes it's a bit spooky, and sometimes I think the band reads my blog. They did indeed deliver a new album to their UK fans in June, and surely made it "with no aspirations of american acceptance"; it hasn't been released in North America as of this article's publication.
62% Fucked Up
It stands to reason something must be in the works, right? It's been claimed that a new studio album is almost ready, and for a band as prone to just shitting out awesome music at the drop of a hat I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the follow-up to David Comes To Life by summer.
Another one that fell right in line with my prediction, Glass Boys came out two weeks before summer started.
What Are The Chances? Could Go Either Way
56% The Gaslight Anthem
With a B-sides collection hitting shelves so early in 2014 and the guys laying the groundwork on a proper studio album presently, I'm optimistic for a fall release.
This section gets a little dicey, but it starts off with what's now a sure thing; Get Hurt, The Gaslight Anthem's intriguing fifth album, is coming out in mid-August (barring the apocalypse, of course).
47% Torche
Why? Why not? I've got nothing to go on here, it just feels like it could (and perhaps should) happen.
Well, I've got more to go on now, at least; in February, Torche announced not just their signing to marquee metal label Relapse but also that they were recording their new album with an anticipated summer release. There hasn't been much said about it since, but I get the sense that it will be announced any day now.
46% Baroness
Now that they're (mostly) recuperated from 2012's awful bus crash and playing shows again, there's a possibility that Baroness are eager to move on from past events and build a new record for a brighter future. Or, maybe they're content to keep touring and give Yellow & Green the full promotional cycle it deserves.
It's been pretty quiet on the Baroness front in 2014, which tells me they're up to something. Or, they could be taking it easy. We'll see soon enough, I suppose.
44% Tool
I'll come right out and say it; I have doubts about this one. But the proverbial pieces are starting to fit, and it looks quite a bit more promising now than it did this time last year. Still, by giving it a percentage below the fifty, I think I've got an out when it gets pushed back to 2015.
LOL.
42% Slayer
The thing about the next Slayer record (let's be straight up, if there is one) is that it there are a myriad of reasons it could be delayed even if it's being worked on right this second. There's a lot of uncertainty and turmoil surrounding this band recently, and the only thing I truly care to predict about the outcome of the next Slayer record is bitter disappointment where Jeff Hanneman used to be.
Still no sign of the actual album, but Slayer did release a new song earlier this year. And boy, was it disappointing.
What Are The Chances? Don't Hold Your Breath
34% Machine Head
They've already stated they're taking their time and getting this one exactly how they want it. While that still could mean a 2014 release for the follow-up to Unto The Locust, I don't expect it until 2015.
This one's still kind of hard to predict, although recent updates lean me toward sooner rather than later, with a recent interview touching on details of the album's artwork and special editions. I could see this one hitting in October, maybe even September.
31% Brand New
Just like last year, we're being told that things are happening in the Brand New camp. And, just like last year, it seems those things are happening slowly. I'll give it a slightly higher chance of releasing because I believe it should come out in 2014. But that doesn't mean it will.
Things are still moving slowly around Brand New; a few photos here, a few studio mentions there, but there's still no concrete evidence of a new record nor any reason to believe it will arrive this year.
26% Slipknot
It seems like it's all kind of unraveling for Slipknot, with longtime drummer Joey Jordison leaving the fold as they work on their fifth album. And yet, it's promised business as usual, with work moving forward on a rumoured double album. However, there is that upcoming Stone Sour tour that Jim Root is sitting out to focus on the Slipknot record; am I the only one who's getting the feeling this book's got a lot more chapters in it before the story is told?
It's still hard to say at this point what Slipknot's fifth album is going to sound like or when it will arrive, but in the past couple of weeks teaser videos have started to surface. It's not much to go on, but it stands to reason that it may see release in 2014 if the promotional gears have already started turning.
25% Modest Mouse
Songs for a new Modest Mouse record definitely exist; they've played a handful live. As far as the album itself? Nobody knows. Could come out in 2014. Probably won't. But I definitely want it to.
They're playing some shows this year. That's good, right? Sure, unless you're expecting them to finish a new album.
22% Red Hot Chili Peppers
Supposedly, the Chili Peppers are due to huddle up any time now to get started on ideas for album number eleven. Sometimes, they get together and make a shitload of music, and an album is quickly born. I don't get that feeling this time.
Yep, sounds about right. They've tinkered around in the studio, but don't have any firm plans for making a record as of yet.
What Are The Chances? Be Shocked If It Happens
12% Muse
Even Matt Bellamy doesn't think a new Muse album will be out in 2014, but there's always the chance that the promised return to the essence of the band he's talked about recently will make for a faster recording process.
According to reports, Muse started work on a new album in May. That said, don't expect to hear anything else about it for a while.
10% Deftones
I wouldn't expect a new studio record from Deftones so soon after the amazing Koi No Yokan, but it was only a two year gap between it and Diamond Eyes, so who knows? Although, if anything, I would think Deftones' next release will be Eros, the album they were working on with fallen brother Chi when he had his (eventually) fatal accident in 2008.
Still no word on either Eros or a new album out of the Deftones camp, but the band did share one of the Eros tracks on the anniversary of Chi Cheng's death in April. Two days later, their label removed it from YouTube claiming copyright infringement. Dicks.
7% Green Day
While I personally think it would be silly to come back with a new album only two years (give or take) after a trio of albums that pretty much flopped when they oversaturated the market, Green Day may be a bit overeager to put that whole year behind them and start from scratch. Still, I'd have to think they'd want to take their time on the next one considering just how haphazard and undercooked Uno,Dos and Tre sounded.
In the case of Green Day, no news is good news; it appears as though they're willing to give fans lots of time to digest that hastily released trilogy of albums that had enough good songs for one.
4% Metallica
Exactly the same percentage as last year because it's just as unlikely. I thought maybe having the freedom of their own label would get the creative juices flowing and get them eagerly working on new material. Turns out all their creativity lately has been going into revenue generators (like the 3D concert flick Through The Never, as well as its obligatory soundtrack) and attention grabbers (like playing a show in Antarctica). As long as there's money and headlines to make, Metallica will keep finding new reasons to delay the inevitable pissing and moaning that's come with each new Metallica record released in the past 23 years.
It looks clear that this one won't see light of day until well into 2015 if not later, though Metallica are at least attempting to appease their fans through all request setlists and one new song released (albeit in unfinished form). But I have to wonder what it is about eight minute long songs that don't have much in the way of structure that the band has enamoured themselves so heavily with in recent years; Lords of Summer is okay, I guess, but doesn't it sound like a band trying way too hard?
3% Radiohead
I really don't see this happening, especially since Thom Yorke expressed interest in the band having a proper break. I think that's fair enough, and I'll take it a step further and hypothesize that maybe the fans could use a break too after 2011's underwhelming The King Of Limbs. If Radiohead do release a new album in 2014, they won't have to use the same surprise techniques they've utilized in the past. No one's expecting it, and not many more are anticipating it.
With the band expected to enter the studio in September, it seems highly unlikely we'll get a new album in 2014. They'll have to pull one of those big surprise stunts in order for that to happen, which wouldn't surprise anyone at this point. Still, I don't see it happening, maybe not even next year, unless they're completely focused on it.
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